Vikings Open as Underdogs Against Packers in Game With Major Playoff Implications

The Vikings are headed to Lambeau Field on New Year's Day with a chance to essentially kill their rivals' playoff dreams.

For a while, it looked like the Vikings-Packers rematch in Green Bay on New Year's Day wouldn't have particularly high stakes. Aaron Rodgers and company lost five in a row earlier this season, falling to 3-6 and then 4-8. Their playoff hopes were resting on extremely thin ice.

Well, the week of the game has arrived, and the Packers are somehow still kicking. They've won three in a row against the Bears, Rams, and Dolphins to keep their season alive at 7-8. Green Bay is suddenly tied with the Lions and Seahawks, right behind the 8-6-1 Giants and the 7-7-1 Commanders for the final two wild card spots in the NFC.

Everything the Packers wanted to happen in Week 16 happened, including the Vikings doing them a favor by beating the Giants in Minnesota's usual thrilling last-second fashion.

Packers needed five results this weekend.

Commanders loss✅
Lions loss✅
Seahawks loss✅
Giants loss✅
Packers win✅

— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) December 25, 2022

That sets up some interesting stakes for Sunday's game at Lambeau Field. Not only are the Vikings still playing for seeding, they have a chance to all but eliminate their biggest rivals from contention. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Packers have a 27 percent chance to make the playoffs. Their simplest path is to win out and have the Commanders lose one of their final two games. Even if the Seahawks also won out, the Packers would have the tiebreaker.

If the Packers beat the Vikings on Sunday, their playoff chances would improve to 56 percent. If they lose, their odds drop to 2 percent. They would need a massive amount of help from other teams to sneak in at 8-9.

That's some nice added motivation for a Vikings team that, despite beating the Packers 23-7 in Week 1, probably doesn't want to see Aaron Rodgers come to U.S. Bank Stadium in the wild card round of the playoffs.

The Vikings remain alive in the hunt for the No. 1 seed, although it's still quite unlikely. The Jalen Hurts-less Eagles losing a close game to the Cowboys doesn't suggest that they're likely to also lose to both the Saints and Giants. The only way the Vikings surpass the Eagles is if Philadelphia goes 0-2 and Minnesota wins at Green Bay and Chicago.

More notably, the Vikings are still fighting to stay ahead of the 49ers for the No. 2 seed. San Francisco has won eight games in a row and doesn't seem ready to slow down any time soon, especially considering they finish the season against the 6-9 Raiders and the 4-11 Cardinals.

That means the Vikings will likely need to win out to keep the second seed. That's important because if both the Vikings and 49ers win in the first round, they'd meet in the divisional round — with the higher seed hosting the game.

Here's what's interesting, though far from surprising at this point: the Vikings, despite having five more wins than the Packers and a head-to-head victory in Week 1, are currently three-point underdogs for Sunday's game in Green Bay. 

Vegas has shown, week after week, that they don't trust this Vikings team. They were surprising underdogs for games against the Cowboys and Lions, both of which ended in Minnesota losses. Then they were just 3.5-point favorites against the Colts and Giants and didn't cover either time, winning by exactly a field goal in both games.

The Packers, who entered this season as the heavy favorites in the NFC North, still have Aaron Rodgers. They still have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, from Aaron Jones and Christian Watson to Preston Smith and Jaire Alexander. They'll have home field advantage in what figures to be frigid conditions at Lambeau.

The Vikings have a team that is battle-tested, having gone 11-0 in one-score games. They have the best receiver in the NFL, a new tight end coming off a massive game, and more than their fair share of blue-chip talent at other positions. They have playoff seeding to play for.

And, on the first day of 2023, they have the chance to bury their rivals.

This should be fun.

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