Vikings-Packers Predictions: Who Wins the NFC North Rivalry Showdown?

Predictions for the Vikings and Packers' big Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium.

We made it through another long offseason, everyone. The NFL is back.

The Vikings are set to open their season — and the Kevin O'Connell era — on Sunday afternoon against the Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. It doesn't get much better than that for a Week 1 matchup.

The anticipation for this game is off the charts. Not only will the atmosphere in Minneapolis be incredible, this game will set the tone for the next 17 weeks in the race for the NFC North title. 

Another thing that will make it fun is that there's so much we don't know about both teams. What will O'Connell's offense look like? What about Ed Donatell's defense, with new pieces in Harrison Phillips and Za'Darius Smith up front? For the Packers, who the heck is Aaron Rodgers going to throw the ball to, other than Aaron Jones? How good will Green Bay's much-hyped defense be right away?

Here are three key matchups to watch for Sunday's game. Now let's get to some predictions, first from myself and then from a variety of national analysts. As a reminder, the Vikings are 1.5-point underdogs in this one.

Will's pick: Vikings 30, Packers 27

It's hard to feel overly confident in picking the Vikings to beat Aaron Rodgers and company, but I think they'll get it done in the opener. The Vikings are healthy, U.S. Bank Stadium will be rocking, and their advantage at wide receiver can help offset their disadvantage at quarterback. The O'Connell era starts with a narrow victory that causes optimism in Minnesota to skyrocket.

National predictions

SI MMQB: Two of SI's five pickers — John Pluym and Mitch Goldich are taking the Vikings. Albert Breer, Conor Orr, and Gary Gramling are taking the Packers on the road.

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Vikings 24, Packers 23

I have no clue what will happen here. That’s true of every game all season, but each week, there’s at least one game where I know how little confidence I have beforehand and would beg off a pick if not for editors. Part of the challenge here is the Packers’ offensive line. If Elgton Jenkins and David Bakhtiari play (and play well), Green Bay has the best tackle combo in football to counteract Minnesota's edge rush duo of Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith. If not, the Vikings’ purple people could eat. 

Bleacher Report Staff: Packers 26, Vikings 23

Just two of B/R's seven pickers are taking the home underdogs.

Rodgers doesn’t have an elite perimeter playmaker, but head coach Matt LaFleur could transform his offense into a ground-heavy attack, which doesn’t bode well for a Vikings defense that ranked 26th against the run in 2021. He called running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon 1A and 1A in the backfield. Sure, Za'Darius Smith can rush the passer, but the Vikings may need more than the addition of nose tackle Harrison Phillips to stop Jones and Dillon.

Mike Florio, PFT: Vikings 28, Packers 24.

The Vikings will instantly be better than they were last year. The Packers may eventually be better, too. It will take them some time to get there, however.

Michael David Smith, PFT: Packers 28, Vikings 21

The Packers should cruise to their fourth straight NFC North title and get it started with a road win against the second-best team in the division.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Packers 24, Vikings 19

Aaron Rodgers has 13 touchdown passes and no picks in his last four games against the Vikings. But he went 2-2 in those games. The difference this time will be the Green Bay defense. That unit has a chance to be special. The Vikings counter with an explosive offense, but in this one that offense doesn't get rolling like it will. Packers take it. 

Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Packers 31, Vikings 20

Kirk Cousins won't be the only quarterback in this game who's happy to be rid of Mike Zimmer. Aaron Rodgers vs. the Vikings with Zimmer: 8-7-1. Aaron Rodgers vs. the Vikings without Zimmer: 9-3.

Sam Farmer, LA Times: Vikings 24, Packers 21

Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith ... the Vikings have a full array of offensive options. Aaron Rodgers might be the best QB in the league but he needs to find his weapons.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Vikings 24, Packers 20

Kevin O'Connell should be the most successful of the rookie coaches as implementing his Rams-enhanced offensive acumen in Minnesota, raising the elite games of wide receiver Justin Jefferson and running back Dalvin Cook. The defense also should play more inspired in a new scheme with a pass rush revamped by a healthy Danielle Hunter and former Packer Za'Darius Smith, plus better secondary help from Patrick Peterson and others.

Green Bay's defense and running game will operate well out of the gate to keep it in the game but there will be some key kinks around Aaron Rodgers with a Davante Adams-less receiving corps. The Vikings sound the early horn at home toward an NFC playoff berth.

Seth Walder, ESPN: Packers 27, Vikings 17

Eric Moody, ESPN: Vikings 24, Packers 21

What to watch for: Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has lit up the Vikings like no other team in his career. His touchdown-to-interception ratio against them (56-to-7) is the best for any qualified quarterback against a single opponent in NFL history, according to Elias Sports Bureau. But his statistical performances haven't always led to victories; he is 15-10-1 overall against the Vikings. If the Vikings win Sunday, Kirk Cousins will become the first quarterback ever to defeat Rodgers in three consecutive games. — Kevin Seifert, ESPN

Bold prediction: The Vikings will end one of Rodgers' most remarkable streaks by picking him off at least once. Rodgers has thrown 38 touchdown passes without an interception against NFC North teams since the start of the 2020 season. According to Elias Sports Bureau research, that's the longest streak of passing TDs without an interception in divisional games in NFL history. But he's breaking in a new group of receivers, and timing could be an issue early on. Don't be surprised if ex-Packers edge rusher Za'Darius Smith factors into a turnover, whether it's with a quarterback pressure or a tipped pass. — Rob Demovsky, ESPN

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