Vikings-Patriots Predictions, Preview: Who Wins on Thanksgiving Night?

Can the Vikings bounce back from an embarrassing showing against the Cowboys?

Learn from it, put it in the past, and get ready to bounce back.

That was the sentiment from the Vikings after Sunday's shocking 40-3 pummeling at U.S. Bank Stadium at the hands of the Cowboys. It was one of those games where everything went wrong, but it doesn't need to be anything more than one game.

"You have to be critical, you have to improve, you have to figure things out," Kirk Cousins said on Tuesday. "At the same time, you have to remind yourself that they each count one, and if we had lost by one point, if we had lost in a blowout, if we win, it's simply one. And no one game is going to — it shouldn't move the needle too much in one direction. We should really be able to stay level. But the key is correcting things, fixing it, and not ever letting it become more."

The Vikings (8-2) don't have to wait long to get another chance to show the country who they really are. They're back on national TV on Thursday night against the Patriots (6-4), playing a Thanksgiving game for the first time since 2017.

New England doesn't bring nearly the same level of offensive explosiveness to U.S. Bank Stadium that the Cowboys did, so this could be a get-right spot for a Vikings defense that couldn't do anything to slow down Dallas. But it'll be an equally difficult task for the Vikings' offense, specifically Kirk Cousins and the O-line in front of him. The Patriots are right behind the league-leading Cowboys in sack rate and pressure rate, led by Matthew Judon, who paces the NFL with 13.0 sacks in ten games.

The Vikings' offensive line — and how well Cousins handles pressure — will determine their success over the next few games and their ceiling in the postseason. It'll be interesting to see what kind of adjustments Kevin O'Connell makes, knowing the Vikings will be playing without left tackle Christian Darrisaw and will have a hard time slowing down the Pats' pass rush. Running the ball and setting up screens and other quick passes could help slow down some of that pass rush.

This should be a fascinating game, particularly when the Vikings have the ball. Bill Belichick is going known for trying to take an offense's best weapon away, so expect plenty of double teams for Justin Jefferson. How will O'Connell counter?

Prediction time. We'll start with my pick and then look at the predictions from various national analysts.

Will's pick: Vikings 20, Patriots 16

2022 record: 7-3

I've now missed two in a row and three of four after a 6-0 start. Time to get back on my game. I think the Vikings will be fired up to prove that they're a much, much better team than they showed on Sunday. The Patriots' elite defense is a problem, but the Vikings have the talent to overcome it and put up some points with a slightly better game plan. I think O'Connell's going to deliver in that regard. I also think the Vikings' defense will get back to its turnover-forcing ways against Mac Jones and a struggling Patriots offense that's dealing with some injuries. Minnesota wins a bit of a slugfest.

National predictions

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Patriots 23, Vikings 22

This is the type of Patriots team Bill Belichick loves: all defense and special teams, with the hope to find offensive footing by Thanksgiving. There were some promising signs against the Jets when the Pats used their two-tight end sets and ran play-action. Mac Jones now gets a favorable matchup against a banged-up Vikings cornerback group. Kirk Cousins, meanwhile, held the ball too long against the Cowboys because he didn't trust what he was seeing. Look for Belichick to confuse Cousins, too, and get a win over Kevin O'Connell, whom the Patriots coach once drafted to back up Tom Brady.

Bleacher Report Staff: Vikings 26, Patriots 20

Sure, the Patriots have won three consecutive games, but they beat the New York Jets in two of those contests—a squad that’s noncommittal to its second-year quarterback in Zach Wilson. Between those division victories, New England dominated the Indianapolis Colts (26-3), who were starting second-year signal-caller Sam Ehlinger for the second time in his career. Don't let the Patriots' record fool you. They're still struggling on offense with the 20th-ranked scoring attack and the 25th spot in total yards. New England won't keep up with Minnesota as the NFC North club tries to shake off its worst showing of the 2022 season.

Mike Florio, PFT: Patriots 17, Vikings 13

The Patriots held the Colts to three points and got Frank Reich fired. The Patriots held the Jets to three points and got Zach Wilson benched. Who from the Vikings will be losing their job after Thursday night?

Michael David Smith, PFT: Vikings 13, Patriots 10

The Vikings can’t possibly look as bad on Thanksgiving night as they did on Sunday against the Cowboys. They’ll bounce back with a hard-fought win.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Vikings 24, Patriots 14

The Vikings were embarrassed Sunday at home, getting blown out by the Cowboys. They will bounce back and play better here. The New England offense is struggling, but the defense is playing well. Even so, I think the Vikings will respond on offense in this one to win it. The Patriots offense is bad. 

Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Patriots 24, Vikings 16

Bill Belichick, the best defensive mind the game has ever seen, has the No. 2 scoring defense (16.9), the second-best pass rush and the NFL's sack leader in Matthew Judon. The Vikings are missing their left tackle and aren't committed to running the ball. A bad mix for the suddenly shaken Purple and rookie head coach Kevin O'Connell.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Vikings 20, Patriots 14

The Vikings' 8-2 record has come under fire after the Cowboys ripped them 40-3 at home following their improbable road rally over the Bills in Week 10. Kirk Cousins got rattled into nothingness vs. Dallas' defense. He doesn't tend to play well in prime time and New England's defense under Bill Belichick is also concerning. But between Dalvin Cook. Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, the Vikings have the options to score enough points here as the Patriots' offense is severely limited with a shaky Mac Jones. 

Seth Walder, ESPN: Vikings 27, Patriots 19

Eric Moody, ESPN: Vikings 24, Patriots 14

What to watch for:

The Patriots have had their way with Vikings quarterback

Kirk Cousins

in two matchups against him, beating his teams both times and holding him to an average of 5.0 yards per attempt — his lowest against any team he has faced in multiple games. This season, the Patriots are fielding the kind of defense that gives him trouble, too. They're generating pressure on 34% of opponents' dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL. The Vikings will be playing without standout left tackle

Christian Darrisaw

(concussion), and Cousins' QBR has dropped 60 points when under pressure in 2022. —

 Kevin Seifert

Bold prediction:

Quarterback

Mac Jones

and the Patriots' struggling red zone offense — which ranks 31st in the NFL in terms of TD percentage (12 in 28 trips, 42.9%) — will break out of a slump and score twice from inside the 20-yard line. That is an area where the Vikings have struggled to defend, as they rank last in the NFL in opponents' touchdown percentage (20 TDs against in 28 trips, 71.4%). —

 Mike Reiss

Stat to know:

The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in all six of their wins this season (0-4 when allowing more than 17 points), and they've now gone two straight games without allowing a touchdown. New England has gone three straight without a TD against once before in franchise history (2018-2019), and the Vikings failed to score a touchdown in Week 11 for the first time in their past 93 games.

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