Vikings playoff clinching scenarios and seeding outlook in Week 15

The Vikings can clinch a postseason spot on Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night this week.

Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell reacts with wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18), wide receiver Jalen Nailor (83) and wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) after a touchdown reception against the Atlanta Falcons during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

There are three different ways the 11-2 Vikings can officially clinch a playoff spot this week.

If the Rams lose to the 49ers on Thursday night, the Vikings are in.

If the Rams win but the Seahawks lose to the Packers on Sunday night, the Vikings are in.

If the Rams and Seahawks win, the Vikings can take care of it themselves by beating the Bears on Monday night.

Any of those three results in primetime action will mathematically confirm what has been basically a lock for a few weeks now. Not only is this Vikings team headed to the postseason, it looks like a group that can legitimately compete for a Super Bowl if Sam Darnold keeps playing at this level.

The issue for the Vikings is that even at 11-2, they're still sitting in the NFC's No. 5 seed because the 12-1 Lions refuse to lose. Detroit has won 11 straight games, with three of the last five coming by just a field goal (against the Texans, Bears, and Packers). Unless the Vikings can find a way to leapfrog the Lions in the NFC North standings, they'll have to go on the road in the wild card round to open the postseason, with another road game likely awaiting them in the divisional round.

And despite getting a rematch in Detroit to close the regular season, the Vikings don't control their own destiny in the NFC North. If both teams win out and Minnesota wins that Week 18 game, the Lions would have the tiebreaker at 15-2 (yes, this playoff format makes it possible for a 15-2 team to begin the playoffs on the road). The head-to-head would be even and the division records would both be 5-1, so it would go to common games, where the Lions win because they beat the Rams and the Vikings lost to LA.

That means the Vikings have to make up a game in the standings prior to Week 18. If there was ever a week to do it, it's this one. The Lions host the 10-3 Bills on Sunday afternoon and are just 2-point favorites over a Josh Allen-led team coming off a tough loss to the Rams. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 7-point home favorites over the 4-9 Bears.

The Lions then go to Chicago and San Francisco over the next two weeks. The 49ers are 6-7 but are seventh in DVOA, so that could be a tough one as well. But the Vikings travel to Seattle and then host the Packers, so they don't have it easy either. If Minnesota goes 2-1 in the next three games, the Lions could clinch the division by also going 2-1 in that stretch. Keep in mind that even if the Vikings head into Week 18 alive in the North, going into Ford Field and winning will be a difficult task.

The margin for error is small and Detroit is extremely good, which is why DVOA still gives the Vikings just an 8.6 percent chance to win the division. But hey, who knows? A Bills win on Sunday and a Vikings win on Monday would mean Minnesota suddenly controls its own destiny.

The most likely outcome, by far, is still the Vikings getting the No. 5 seed and traveling to play one of six teams (the Buccaneers, Falcons, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, or Cardinals) in the opening round. If the season ended right now, it would be Tampa Bay.

Here's what the NFC playoff picture looks like heading into Week 15:

NFC playoff picture / NFL GSIS

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