Inside The Vikings

Vikings playoff seeding implications, tiebreakers, Week 16 rooting guide

The Vikings likely control their own destiny in the race for the NFC's No. 1 seed.

Will Ragatz

Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell warms up with his players before the game against the Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell warms up with his players before the game against the Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
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Heading into Week 16, the Vikings are in a heated race with the Lions for the NFC North title and with both the Lions and Eagles for the coveted No. 1 seed in the conference. All three teams are 12-2, so these final three weeks of the regular season have massive implications in the standings.

At the moment, the Vikings are the No. 5 seed due to their loss to the Lions in October. But with a rematch in Detroit coming up in Week 18, they control their own destiny in the NFC North.

NFC playoff picture heading into Week 16
NFC playoff picture heading into Week 16 / NFL GSIS

The Vikings also likely control their own destiny in the hunt for the NFC's top seed, though that's not a guarantee. The reason for that is if the Vikings and Eagles both win out and finish 15-2, it'll come down to the "strength of victory" tiebreaker because the first three tiebreakers are a wash — they haven't played head-to-head and would be tied in conference record and record against common opponents.

If both teams win out, the 15 teams the Vikings will have beaten currently have 95 wins, while the 15 teams the Eagles will have beaten currently have 91 wins. Things can change over the final three weeks, but there's a high probability that Minnesota would win that tiebreaker.

Of course, winning out against the Seahawks, Packers, and Lions won't be easy. That's why DVOA gives Minnesota just a 25 percent chance to win the division and a 14 percent chance to be the No. 1 seed. But it's possible.

Week 16 Vikings fan rooting guide

The big three

Vikings at Seahawks

Obviously, the Vikings' sole focus this week is going on the road and finding a way to win their eighth consecutive game. They're 3-point road favorites over a Seahawks team that ranks 18th in DVOA. Seattle has been fairly mediocre this season, but Geno Smith is healthy and there are playmakers on both sides of the ball who could give Minnesota problems. A loss, combined with either a Lions or Eagles win, would make it very difficult to finish ahead of that team.

Lions at Bears

Chicago could do the Vikings a huge favor by snapping its eight-game losing streak this week. Does that seem likely? No. But the Bears are only 6.5-point home underdogs, so it's not out of the question. They hung with the Lions at Ford Field on Thanksgiving, and Detroit's injury issues have gotten worse since then. Jared Goff's career numbers at Soldier Field are another reason for faint hope.

Eagles at Commanders

This is a huge one. Philadelphia finishes with home games against the Cowboys and Giants (who they've beaten on the road by a combined score of 62-9 this season) so this is their best chance at a loss. It was a 26-18 win for the Eagles when they hosted Washington in mid-November. Jayden Daniels and the 9-5 Commanders are battling to secure their playoff spot. They're 3.5-point home underdogs who certainly have a shot if they show up and play well.

The rest

* Texans (+3.5) at Chiefs (Saturday)
* Giants at Falcons (-8.5)
* Cardinals (-4.5) at Panthers
* Rams at Jets (+3)
* 49ers (PK) at Dolphins
* Buccaneers (-4) at Cowboys (SNF)
* Saints at Packers (-14) (MNF)

These games matter for the potential strength of victory tiebreaker with the Eagles. Basically, it means cheering for teams the Vikings have beaten and against teams the Eagles have beaten. Five of these games count for two points in that race — the two that count for only one point are Texans-Chiefs and 49ers-Dolphins.

As an example, if the Falcons beat the Giants, the Vikings would go +1 in wins because they beat Atlanta and Philly lost to them. If the Giants win, the Eagles would be +1 because they'll have beaten the Giants twice in the tiebreaker scenario and the Vikings only beat them once. That's a two-win swing. It's a bit confusing, I know, but all you need to know is that you should be rooting for the teams in bold above. And the good news is that most of those teams are favored to win.

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

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