Vikings-Titans preview: Three numbers to know about Tennessee

The Titans are 2-7 but have somehow allowed fewer yards per game than any other team.

Aug 19, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; The line of scrimmage between the Minnesota Vikings and the Tennessee Titans during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Vikings (7-2) will look to complete a sweep of the AFC South on Sunday when they take on the Titans (2-7) in Nashville. This is yet another winnable game for a Minnesota team that has overcome slow starts and a barrage of Sam Darnold turnovers in one-score wins against the Colts and Jaguars over the last two weeks. Ahead of this weekend's matchup, here are three key numbers to know about the Titans.

273.6... and 26.7

Here's something you don't see every day: The Titans' defense has allowed fewer yards per game (273.6) than any other team in football, yet they're 29th in the league in scoring average (26.7 points against per game). How is that possible? The other numbers we're going to look at in this story will add some context, but for now, let's focus on what is actually a quality defense (11th in DVOA, 15th in opponent EPA per play).

It starts up front for the Titans and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson. Jeffery Simmons is a monster of a defensive tackle, and he's flanked by 6'4", 360-pound rookie T'Vondre Sweat and veteran Sebastian Joseph-Day. Edge rushers Arden Key and Harold Landry III are solid as well. The corners are suspect, but the safety duo — Amani Hooker and Quandre Diggs, if healthy — is a good one. Linebacker Jack Gibbens has also sneakily been impressive lately.

"Just going off of what they look like on tape, really good front, a lot of team speed on their defense," Kevin O'Connell said this week. "I think they play a good scheme, an aggressive scheme, and they really let the strengths of their defense, which is a lot, they let those guys do what they do really well. Clearly some size and impact ability."

In other words, it won't be totally smooth sailing for the Vikings against this Tennessee defense. They'll have to pass protect well, get the run game going, and hope Darnold can avoid making as many colossal mistakes as he has in the last two games.

-11

One reason why the Titans have allowed so few yards and so many points is their turnover differential of -11, which is second-worst in the league. They've got just six takeaways all season and 17 giveaways, including 11 interceptions from quarterbacks Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. That tends to put the defense in difficult situations. Levis, who the Vikings will see this week, has really struggled in his second season, throwing 7 TDs and 7 INTs with a sub-80 passer rating. He's actually coming off his best game of the season against the Chargers — he threw two touchdowns with no picks in the loss — but he could be in for a long afternoon against Brian Flores' defense.

The Titans' offense as a whole ranks 27th in DVOA and 29th in EPA per play. Levis is a turnover-prone wild card who is liable to make mistakes when pressured. The offensive line is very mediocre. Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley are dangerous weapons, but that's about it. This projects as another week for some Vikings takeaway celebrations.

-15.6%

That figure is the Titans' dead-last special teams DVOA. You don't have to fully understand how DVOA numbers work, but just know that the 31st-ranked team is at -7.2%. Only three teams are at -4% or worse. The Titans have been hurt by their special teams performance more than anyone else in the NFL, by a wide margin.

It hasn't been the kicking game — 40-year-old Nick Folk has been good — for Tennessee, it's been their punt coverage. They've allowed 537 punt return yards, which is 180 more than the next-closest team. That includes a 90-yard touchdown by Kalif Raymond in the Lions' 52-14 win in Week 8. They've also given up a few big kick returns and had some issues with fumbles on their own returns. Field position has been a mess for this Titans team, which is part of the reason why they're 2-7 with a -83 point differential.

The Vikings, interestingly, are dead last in both punt return and kick return yardage this season. But if there was ever a week for Brandon Powell to make something happen in the punt return phase, this would be it.