What Might Justin Jefferson's Contract Extension Look Like?

Looking at some of the factors that could be key in negotiations over a Jefferson contract.

Could a contract extension for Vikings superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson be coming soon? KFAN's Mark Rosen recently hinted that Jefferson news is on the way, and an extension seems like the most logical possibility.

Jefferson hasn't been present at the team's OTAs, presumably due to his contract situation. The three-time All-Pro, who has established himself as arguably the best receiver in the league, has certainly earned a massive new deal, even if the Vikings currently have him under contract for two more seasons.

So what might the hold-up be? And what would a Jefferson extension this offseason look like?

For one, it's almost a given that Jefferson will become the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history, surpassing Tyreek Hill's $30 million average annual value. How the deal is actually structured is another conversation, but you can bet Jefferson's camp will ensure that his deal, at least on the surface, has an AAV above $30 million. That's a necessity for a soon-to-be 24-year-old who is off to the best three-year start to a career of any WR the league has ever seen, at least yardage-wise.

The term is the more interesting part. The Vikings will presumably push for more term, in order to keep Jefferson under contract for as long as possible. The new regime led by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah hasn't yet signed a player to a huge extension, but the previous Rick Spielman regime gave out five-year deals for players like Brian O'Neill, Danielle Hunter, Dalvin Cook, and Stefon Diggs over the years, among others.

In this case, a five-year deal seems highly unlikely. Because Jefferson still has two more years on his rookie contract (including the fifth-year option in 2024), a five-year extension would keep him under contract for seven more seasons in total. That deal wouldn't expire until after the 2029 season, when Jefferson is 30.

Jefferson's camp will likely push for a shorter extension. A three-year deal would functionally be five years, putting Jefferson in position to hit the market again at age 28. Nothing is set in stone due to the possibility of a trade or restructure or release, but Jefferson will likely want as much flexibility as possible, especially given the Vikings' uncertain future at quarterback.

That QB uncertainty raises the question of whether or not Jefferson will sign an extension with the Vikings at all, but for now, let's say his quote from January — "If they want me here, I'm here" — is reality.

Another potential sticking point in negotiations could be the structure of the deal, in terms of guaranteed money. According to Mike Florio of PFT, the Vikings "typically insist on a structure that entails injury guarantees that don’t become fully guaranteed until the year the money is earned. It gives the Vikings an annual out, as long as the player is healthy."

Florio points out that the Vikings broke that precedent for Kirk Cousins, so it could happen again. Jefferson's camp is undoubtedly pushing for as much guaranteed money as possible over the course of a deal, while the Vikings will want as much flexibility as possible on their end.

Could something like a four-year, $125 million extension work for both sides? It could be somewhat back-loaded for salary cap purposes, while having two or three fully-guaranteed years to satisfy Jefferson's side.

The Vikings have been very clear about wanting to get an extension done with Jefferson. Let's see if it happens.

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