What Would it Take for Justin Jefferson to Win NFL MVP?

No wide receiver has ever won MVP. How crazy would the Vikings superstar's stats need to be to change that?

Just how dominant would Justin Jefferson have to be to win the NFL's MVP award someday?

No wide receiver has ever won the award. Not Jerry Rice, who finished second in 1987 and 1995 and third two other times. Not Randy Moss, who got a few votes in 1998, his rookie season. Not Calvin Johnson or Cooper Kupp, owners of the only 1,900-yard seasons in league history. It has never happened. Since 2007, Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to win it.

Nonetheless, NFL.com's Adam Schein recently listed Jefferson as a dark horse MVP candidate for the 2023 season, along with eight quarterbacks. If there's any receiver in the league with even a minuscule chance to make history, it's Jefferson, who burst onto the scene with 1,400 yards as a rookie and has improved his production in both of his seasons since then.

Last year, Jefferson put up 1,809 yards — the sixth-most in NFL history — and was one of five finalists for the award, but he never had a remote chance to win it (Patrick Mahomes took home his second). Jefferson, who turned 24 on Friday, settled for Offensive Player of the Year instead.

I’m honored just to be a candidate😂 https://t.co/Vw0bdUR4e2

— JJETS✈️ (@JJettas2) January 25, 2023

So what would it take? It would have to be a truly absurd, record-shattering season, considering Kupp won the receiving triple crown with a 145/1,947/16 line in 2021 and only received one MVP vote as Aaron Rodgers won it for the second year in a row.

For starters, Jefferson would have to become the first receiver in league history with 2,000 yards — and he'd probably have to go well over that number. He'd also have to massively improve his touchdown production, as he has just 26 total touchdowns in three seasons and a career-high of 10. Let's double that to get him in range of the all-time single-season leaders (Moss with 23 and Rice with 22).

I think Jefferson's line would have to be something like this: 140 catches, 2,150 yards, and 20 touchdowns. If he did that in a year where the Vikings win another 11 or 12 games and return to the playoffs, he might just have a chance. Even then, he'd still probably need Mahomes and all of the league's other top quarterbacks to avoid having any insane seasons of their own.

Hey, Jefferson is +10000 to win MVP for a reason.

Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all offseason long. Also, follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask me any questions on there.