Where Does the Vikings' Offensive Playmaker Group Rank in 2023?
After essentially swapping out Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook for Jordan Addison and Alexander Mattison this offseason, where does the Vikings' playmaker group rank heading into the 2023 season?
ESPN's Bill Barnwell can answer that question for us. He released his annual ranking of all 32 teams' offensive weapons on Monday.
First, some context for his list.
"I'm trying to separate out a team's playmakers — its running backs, wide receivers and tight ends exclusively — to estimate how they would perform outside of their current offense," Barnwell wrote. "In other words, if we gave every team an average quarterback, offensive line and playcaller and had them play at an average pace, which would have the league's best offense?"
These are the rules that were used:
- This is only about on-field performance for the 2023 season.
- Injury history and suspensions matter.
- Wide receivers are weighted more heavily than running backs or tight ends.
- The focus is on elite players and a team's top five contributors.
- Efficiency matters.
Got it? With all of that in mind, Barnwell ranked the Vikings 6th out of 32. It's their third consecutive year in his top six, as they were 5th heading into 2021 and 4th at this time a year ago. A pretty talented wide receiver by the name of Justin Jefferson is the driving force behind that.
In addition to having the league's consensus No. 1 receiver, the Vikings have a Pro Bowl tight end in T.J. Hockenson and solid homegrown starters at RB and WR in Mattison and K.J. Osborn. Crucially, Barnwell believes they upgraded at receiver by replacing the aging Thielen with the rookie Addison.
The Vikings also upgraded their biggest weakness this offseason by swapping out Adam Thielen for first-round pick Jordan Addison. Even allowing for the wide range of outcomes we see from first-round picks in their debut seasons, Thielen had grown long in the tooth. He ranked 83rd among 97 wideouts in yards per route run last season, just one spot ahead of teammate K.J. Osborn. Kirk Cousins' QBR was nearly 20 points better (in a small sample) with Thielen off the field in 2022; Addison should make an immediate impact across from Jefferson.
Hockenson had a big second half after joining the Vikings in a trade with the Lions, but Barnwell points out that his efficiency actually fell a bit in Minnesota.
The Vikings ran the most plays and drives of any team last season, which helped inflate their receivers' numbers. What looked like a breakout for new tight end T.J. Hockenson was realistically just more opportunities to play. During his seven-game stretch to begin the season with the Lions, Hockenson ran 29 routes per game and was targeted on 22.4% of those routes. After joining Minnesota, he averaged just under 35 routes per game and was targeted on just over 24% of his targets.
The 2019 first-round pick was actually less efficient, as he fell from 1.8 yards per route run to 1.6 after joining the Vikings, but the added volume was king. If they do slow down in 2023 — or if Addison is able to carve out a larger share of the offense than Thielen did — Hockenson's numbers should fall. He's still going to be a useful tight end, but I'm not sure he's in that second tier alongside Mark Andrews and George Kittle as a receiver.
Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson are the primary reasons the Vikings rank sixth on this list, with Jefferson's presence alone doing much of the work.
According to Barnwell, one of the things keeping the Vikings out of the top five is the running back position, where Mattison is viewed as a downgrade from Cook.
Running back is also less of a strength than it was a year ago after the Vikings cut Dalvin Cook. It's true Cook's rushing efficiency declined dramatically last season, but he had generally been an above average to very good back before 2022. The release pushes Alexander Mattison into a leading role, and Mattison wasn't very good last season, either; he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, didn't do much as a receiver and averaged minus-0.6 rushing yards over expected per carry. (Cook was at minus-0.1.) The concerns at running back are enough to keep Minnesota out of the top five.
Jefferson, Hockenson, and Osborn are mostly known quantities at this point. Potential injuries aside, two things will likely determine the collective success of the Vikings' weapons this season: Addison's play as a rookie and Mattison's production as a first-time starting running back.
Outside of the top five, keep an eye on Josh Oliver, Jalen Nailor, and Ty Chandler as three players who could be serious factors in Minnesota's offense this season.
Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all offseason long. Also, follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask me any questions on there.
