Where the playoff machine thinks the Vikings are headed in the first round

If the Vikings get the No. 5 seed, there are three destinations that seem more likely than the rest.

Oct 3, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) talks to Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) after a game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

At 11-2, the Minnesota Vikings still have a chance to win the NFC North by chasing down the Detroit Lions (12-1). But if Minnesota doesn't win the division, there is a strong possibility they will command the No. 5 seed and go on the road against the No.4 seed on Wild Card Weekend.

If the playoffs started this week, the Vikings would be headed to Tampa Bay to face Baker Mayfield and the NFC South-leading Buccaneers (7-6). However, the Falcons (6-7) and Saints (5-8) are still in the within striking distance in the South and the four seed could very well wind up in the hands of the NFC West winner — and the West is wide open with the Seahawks (8-5), Rams (7-6), Cardinals (6-7) and 49ers (6-7) all still in the fight.

So which teams will win the South and West and which of those will be the No. 4 seed? Let's break it down team by team and explain why the three most likely first-round road trips for the No. 5 seed are Tampa Bay, Atlanta or Seattle.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Schedule: at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

• Final record projection: 10-7

The Athletic's playoff predictor makes the Bucs a favorite to win their last three games against the Cowboys, Panther and Saints, while making them an underdog at the Chargers. It favors them reaching 10 wins, with 9 wins the second most likely outcome.

Atlanta Falcons

• Schedule: at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers

• Final record projection: 9-8

The prediction machine from The Athletic gives Atlanta just over a 15% chance to finish with 10 wins, compared to a greater than 40% chance to finish 9-8. The second most likely outcome is 8 wins.

The Falcons will win a tiebreaker over Tampa Bay because they swept the Bucs in the regular season.

New Orleans Saints

• Schedule: vs. Commanders, at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers

• Final record projection: 6-11

They're only two games out of the division race but the prediction machine gives them a less than 1% chance to be playing in the playoffs.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks

• Schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

• Final record projection: 10-7

The prediction machine gives the Seahawks a 46% chance to win at home this week against the Packers, and then it's 50-50 pick-em game versus the Vikings. Their last two games at Chicago (on a Thursday night) and at the Rams are also nearly 50-50 games. Still, the machine likes them to go 3-1 in their last four games. If they finish with 9 wins, things get really interesting.

Los Angeles Rams

• Schedule: at 49ers, at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

• Final record projection: 9-8

The machine gives the Rams only a 41% chance to win at San Francisco on Thursday night. But they're the favorites in the last three games of the season. The machine suggests there's about a 35% chance the Rams finish with 9 wins, compared to 25% chances to wind up with 8 or 10 victories.

Week 18 versus Seattle could be huge. If the Rams win that one, they will have swept the Seahawks and control a tiebreaker against Seattle.

Arizona Cardinals

• Schedule: vs. Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers

• Final record projection: 8-9

Will the Cardinals really only win two of their last four games? They're big favorites the next two games against the Jets and Panthers and then they'd just have to beat the Rams or 49ers in the last two weeks to get to 9 wins. It's doable, but the prediction machine gives them a slim 11% chance at the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers

• Schedule: vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals

• Final record projection: 8-9

The Niners have a brutal remaining schedule and their playoffs odds reflect that at just 7%, according to the prediction machine.

Conclusion

If Tampa Bay and Seattle are the favorites to win the South and West, respectively, we need to figure out which of those two would be the No. 4 seed in the event that they finish with identical 10-7 records.

Since they won't meet in the regular season, the first tiebreaker between the Bucs and Seahawks would be conference record. Entering Week 15, the Bucs are 6-3 against NFC teams and the Seahawks are 4-4. That would favor the Bucs getting the No. 3 seed and the Seahawks then hosting the Vikings as the No. 4 seed.

The next two most likely options to represent the South and West are the Falcons and Rams, respectively. They don't meet in the regular season and the Falcons are 6-3 in NFC action compared to 4-5 for the Rams.

So, if we're ordering things by most likely first-round playoff opponent for the No. 5-seed Vikings, it would go Seahawks, Buccaneers, Falcons and Rams.

If the Falcons and Seahawks end up as the division winners and have identical records, Seattle would win the tiebreaker and be awarded the No. 3 seed thanks to a win over the Falcons in Week 7. That would send the Vikings on a collision course with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta on Wild Card Weekend.

It's going to be a thrilling finish to find out where Minnesota is headed...