Would Hiring Jim Harbaugh as Head Coach Be Worth the Risk For the Vikings?

Harbaugh's career win-loss record is incredibly impressive, but there are reasons to ask questions about the fit in Minnesota.

This is starting to get very real.

The Vikings are flying Jim Harbaugh into Minnesota for an interview on Wednesday. He'll be the last of four finalists for the job to have an in-person meeting with a group that includes owner and president Mark Wilf, new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, and executive VP of football operations Rob Brzezinski. The Michigan coach seems to be seriously considering a return to the NFL after seven years away, and the Vikings' job might just be his if he wants it.

When it was first reported that the Vikings had an initial conversation with Harbaugh on Saturday, it was fair to be skeptical. Was he just doing this for leverage in extension talks with Michigan? If he does want an NFL gig, would the Dolphins — whose owner, Stephen Ross, is a big Michigan booster — be the logical landing spot?

Those questions still exist. But with the news that Harbaugh is coming to TCO Performance Center for an official interview on Wednesday — which happens to be National Signing Day in the NCAA — the pieces are falling into place. If you're Harbaugh, you probably don't come this far in the process unless you're legitimately interested in not only a return to the NFL, but the Vikings' vacancy in particular. If you're the Vikings, you probably don't fly Harbaugh to your headquarters unless you're contemplating making him an offer.

The other three finalists — Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell, Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, and Giants defensive coordinator Patrick Graham — are all still in the running. But reading between the lines of Monday night's news, it sure seems like Harbaugh is suddenly the favorite in this race. There's even buzz that 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans withdrew from contention in part because of Harbaugh's presence as a candidate.

So let's discuss the big question: would hiring Harbaugh be the right move for the Vikings? It's a fascinating debate with valid cases to be heard on both sides.

The argument in favor of Harbaugh starts, unsurprisingly, with his win-loss record as a head coach. This is a guy who has won everywhere he's gone. It started at the University of San Diego, where he went 29-6 in three seasons. Then he took over a Stanford program that went 1-11 the season before he arrived, recruited Andrew Luck, and led them to a 12-1 season in his fourth year. Harbaugh went 29-21 with the Cardinal, including a 20-6 mark in his final two seasons.

The most relevant data set for the Vikings' potential decision is Harbaugh's first stint as an NFL head coach. He jumped from Stanford to the 49ers in 2011, joining a franchise that hadn't had a winning record in nine years and had just gone 6-10. In Harbaugh's first season, they went 13-3 and fell to the Giants in overtime of the NFC title game. The following year, Colin Kaepernick stepped in at quarterback when Alex Smith got hurt midseason and the 49ers nearly mounted a wild comeback in the Super Bowl against the Ravens. 2013 brought a third consecutive season of at least 11 wins, a third consecutive trip to the NFC championship game, and a third consecutive heartbreak when Richard Sherman famously deflected Kaepernick's pass in the end zone for a game-sealing interception. 

The magic dried up in 2014 when San Francisco went 8-8. After the season, Harbaugh and the 49ers parted ways over tensions between him and the team's front office and ownership (more on that in a second). Still, Harbaugh's current record in the NFL is 49-22-1, including playoffs. That's Bill Belichick, Sean McVay, Andy Reid-level stuff from a purely win-loss standpoint, albeit in a smallish sample size.

For the past seven seasons, Harbaugh has been the head coach at his alma mater. The Wolverines consistently recruited well and won plenty of games, but struggled to get over the hump against Ohio State and in other big matchups. That changed this season as they finally beat OSU, won the Big Ten title, and earned a berth in the College Football Playoff, losing to the eventual champions, Georgia. Harbaugh has gone 61-24 in four seasons at Michigan.

Combine Harbaugh's record at all four of his head coaching stops and you get 168-73-1. That's a winning percentage just shy of .700. The sample size is more than large enough to describe Harbaugh as a proven winner. Simply put, NFL head coach candidates with his track record of success don't come around very often. The last one is probably Reid in 2013, and that move has worked out pretty well for the Chiefs. 

Harbaugh would be a huge splash of a hire for the Vikings, if it happens. From what I've seen on Twitter over the past couple days, the fan base would be fired up. Harbaugh is an experienced, successful head coach who is offense-oriented as a former longtime NFL QB but would coach the entire team. Another major selling point is that he'd likely be able to fill out an impressive coaching staff, potentially reuniting with Vic Fangio and/or Ed Donatell on the defensive side of the ball and Pep Hamilton on offense. By landing Harbaugh, you would almost certainly be landing some fantastic assistant coaches as well.

It all sounds pretty perfect so far, right? 

Except there's another side to Jim Harbaugh, head coach candidate, that can't be avoided. And there are all kinds of questions about how he'd fit in Minnesota and what hiring him would entail on various levels.

Harbaugh, to put it bluntly, is a strange person. He's quirky and unique and extraordinarily competitive; his mind is always racing and his temper isn't always in control. From the famous khakis he wears every day to over-the-top recruiting tactics, there are all kinds of wild little details and stories from Harbaugh's coaching career — and others that date back to his playing days. His intense, demanding coaching style and personality, in his own words, can "wear out his welcome" somewhere after a while. Alex Boone, a former Vikings guard who played for Harbaugh in San Francisco, once said the coach "might be clinically insane."

Things fell apart quickly for Harbaugh with the 49ers despite an incredibly successful three years to begin his tenure. He feuded with general manager Trent Baalke over various things, including control of the roster. He feuded with CEO Jed York. It wasn't pretty towards the end of that run.

The Vikings came into this GM and coaching search looking to go in a different direction from the Rick Spielman-Mike Zimmer era. They preached that they wanted to find great leadership, communication, and collaboration skills in the two new people who will preside over their football team. In hiring Adofo-Mensah, they followed through on that stated mission by landing a strong collaborator who is the stark opposite of Spielman when it comes to background and personality.

Harbaugh is not the opposite of Zimmer. He's a similarly intense coach who expects to win at all costs and knows he might rub some people the wrong way in that process. After the way the Zimmer era ended and everything we know about some of the Vikings' culture problems during his tenure, the question of whether or not Harbaugh is the right fit at this moment must be raised.

Roster control would be an interesting dynamic as well. Adofo-Mensah is clearly interested in Harbaugh, but who would make the final personnel decisions? It seems unlikely Harbaugh would come on board without any sort of say in those matters. During his introductory press conference, Adofo-Mensah declined to specify if he would have full roster control or not, saying it'll be a collaborative process. But what happens if he and Harbaugh struggle to stay on the same page over time?

That brings up another topic of discussion: how Harbaugh fits with the Vikings' timeline for potentially becoming a contender. Minnesota had a window of opportunity under Zimmer from 2015-2019, one that peaked in 2017 and ultimately only resulted in two total playoff victories. Instead of recognizing that the window had closed and entering a rebuild, the Vikings spent the past two offseasons trying to convince themselves they were still contenders. They extended Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and several other veteran players and "reloaded" by signing or trading for players who they thought would help them win right away. 

What resulted was a 7-9 season followed by an 8-9 season that cost Zimmer and Spielman their jobs. The defense was horrendous in each of the past two years and Cousins' shortcomings — at least relative to his lofty price tag — limited the offense at times. The Vikings now have a difficult salary cap situation, major decisions to make on Cousins, Danielle Hunter, and other expensive, aging veterans, and a defense that needs an influx of talent. Despite the roster still having plenty of win-now pieces, including one of the game's elite wide receivers in Justin Jefferson, a rebuild might once again be the best long-term choice for the franchise's future.

I'm not sure that option would be on the table if Harbaugh comes to town. He desperately wants to win a Super Bowl and might not have any interest in a rebuild that could require his first full season with a losing record since 2008 at Stanford. If Harbaugh is hired and has partial or full control over roster decisions, that might mean another offseason of trying to jam the window open by extending Cousins again and making other win-now moves.

Maybe it would work out this time with Harbaugh at the helm. Or maybe it would flame out in damaging fashion. A cautionary tale Minnesota sports fans are familiar with is the Timberwolves hiring Tom Thibodeau as their coach and president of basketball operations in 2016. Thibodeau, like Harbaugh, had an extremely successful first stint as a head coach (with the Chicago Bulls) come to an end because his intense style wore players down and led to tension with the front office. He got roster control in Minnesota and blew up the future for one playoff appearance before things became a disaster.

I'm not saying Harbaugh is Thibodeau. But with where the Vikings' roster currently stands — and what they've said they're looking for in terms of collaboration and culture — it's possible that the fit isn't ideal. Maybe they should give Morris another chance to lead a team. Maybe the timeline makes more sense to let Morris or a first-time head coach in O'Connell or Graham grow from the ground up along with Adofo-Mensah.

Or maybe that's overthinking things and the Vikings would be foolish to let Harbaugh leave the building without an offer on Wednesday, provided he wants the job. After all, the hope with Morris, O'Connell, or Graham is the possibility that they could become a good head coach. With Harbaugh, he's already proven to be that. Coaches who win 70 percent of their games don't become available very often, so maybe the Vikings should hire Harbaugh and figure everything else out from there.

It's a fascinating possibility for so many reasons. Harbaugh becoming the Vikings' next head coach could go extremely well or it could blow up in everyone's face. Either way, there's no doubt that it would be an entertaining ride.

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