Matthew Coller: How strong are the Vikings by the numbers?

The 5-0 Vikings are really good but how good do the stats say they are?

Oct 6, 2024; Tottenham, ENG; Minnesota Vikings Defensive Back Stephon Gilmore (2) celebrates his interception with Defensive Back Shaquill Griffin (1) in the 4th Quarter against New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shaun Brooks-Imagn Images / Shaun Brooks-Imagn Images

Any time a team is beating preseason expectations, there is going to be skepticism about whether that team will continue to ride the wave. That is certainly the case with the Minnesota Vikings, though power rankers across the universe have moved the Vikings up into the top five slots in recent weeks.

In an effort to figure out whether they will remain there, let’s take a closer look at what a bunch of statistics tell us about the team’s overall strength and how they stack up against 5-0 teams of the recent past and the current rest of the NFL.

The 5-0 Club

In the last 10 NFL seasons, there have been 21 instances of a team starting 5-0. Out of the 19 that happened prior to 2024, 17 of the 5-0 Club teams made the playoffs, six reached the Super Bowl and one (2015 Broncos) won the Super Bowl. Only the 2015 Falcons and 2016 Vikings missed the postseason.

Here’s how the win totals were distributed from past 5-0 teams:

— One team (2015 Panthers) won 15 games

— One team (2022 Eagles) won 14 games

— Two teams (2019 49ers, 2018 LA Rams) won 13 games

— Eight teams won 12 games

— Three teams won 11 games

— Two teams won 10 games

— Two teams won 8 games

Every team and season is its own entity but that distribution tells us that 5-0 is a very strong signal for a team being elite. Only 26% of the teams finished with fewer than 12 wins and that doesn’t factor for the fact the NFL only went to 17 games in 2021.

Another way to compare the Vikings’ hot start to the season is through point differential. The Vikings currently lead the NFL with a plus-63 point differential. In the last 10 years there have been 23 teams who have outscored their opponents by at least 50 points and only 10 clubs who have produced a better point differential than the current Vikings mark.

Out of 12 teams that were plus-60 or better, all 12 made the playoffs, 10 reached at least the divisional round of the playoffs and three of them went to the Super Bowl.

While the Vikings’ start to the season has been excellent from a point differential perspective, it hasn’t been on the same level as the best of the best in the last 10 years. Five teams outscored their opponents by at least 90 points with the best being the 2019 New England Patriots, who trounced their opposition 155-34.

Again, the signal is strong. And the reality is, the Vikings were on the doorstep of outscoring their opponents by a lot more had they not allowed the Packers and Jets to come back in the second halves of the last two games.

If you are wondering, the 2016 Vikings that missed the playoffs had a plus-56 differential through five games, the 16th best of the last 10 years. However, they were only one of three teams (out of 21) to miss the playoffs after outscoring opponents by at least 50 points in the first five games.

How does the offense stack up?

The Vikings’ offense would fall more under the category of “solid” rather than elite. In terms of offenses through five games over the last 10 seasons, they only rank 54th in total points. That’s not bad by any means — it’s only four points behind the 2021 Rams — but the top 10 teams offensively through five weeks produced between 169 and 190 points.

From a down-to-down efficiency standpoint, the Vikings are a quality passing team and slightly below average running team in terms of Expected Points Added. That metric compares production vs. expectation based on a given down and distance.

Overall they rank 14th. Here is a chart (via RBSDM.com) showing how they stack up in rush and pass EPA:

How the Vikings stack up in rush and pass EPA. / RBSDM.com

The metric “success rate,” which is defined as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down, is more friendly to the Vikings’ passing game. They are ninth in success rate per drop-back but only 24th in rushing SR.

Historically passing EPA has had a stronger correlation with overall team success than rushing. Last year the 49ers ranked No. 1 in EPA and reached the Super Bowl, in 2022 the Super Bowl reps Eagles and Chiefs were both top five, and in 2021 the Rams were No. 1 and Bengals ninth.

How about the details?

Despite a tough game against the Jets, Sam Darnold is still well above average in terms of his completion percentage above expectation.

QB efficiency through five weeks in 2024. / RBSDM.com

Darnold is 14th in ESPN’s QBR metric, which is designed to to, “incorporate all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties.”

He slipped to 19th by PFF’s grading system, in part because the veteran QB ranks seventh in turnover-worthy play rate.

Interestingly, he ranks No. 2 in deep passing yards (throws over 20 yards in the air) and fourth in deep passing rate. You won’t be surprised to learn that Matthew Stafford was No. 1 in deep passing yards in 2021 under a similar offense.

The bottom line on the Vikings’ offense is that they are certainly good enough to keep winning if they maintain this level of production through the air. But they likely need to maintain an elite defense for the rest of the season to put their hat in the ring as the best team in the NFL at the end of the year…

How does the defense stack up?

Simply put: The Vikings have the best defense in football. By Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metric, which attempts to parse out the yardage that matters and compare teams vs. competition, Brian Flores’s unit is the best in the NFL.

There are a bunch of other metrics to back that up. The Vikings are…

— No. 1 EPA on defense

— No. 1 opponent scoring %

— No. 2 pressure percentage

— No. 2 opponent QB rating

— No. 1 QB hits

— No. 5 rushing EPA against

Here’s how they stack up as a rushing and passing defense:

Passing and rushing defensive efficiency. / RBSDM.com

The pressure and coverage have converged together nicely. PFF currently has the Vikings graded as the eighth best coverage team, which is the highest they’ve ranked since 2019. Opponents have also greatly struggled to establish a run game against them.

What about on a success rate basis? Well, they are great there as well, ranking second overall and fifth against the pass.

Even if we take the turnovers out of the equation, the Vikings are fourth in yards per play allowed and seventh in net yards per pass attempt (which factors in sacks). They are also the fifth best third down defense.

You could go on and on with the stats that all suggest this team is legitimately a game-changing, elite defense.

One interesting note about the construction of the defense is that they do not have any players who are grading by PFF as being All-Pro level. Certainly the eye test would put Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman and Stephon Gilmore in that discussion but they are grading more along the lines of very, very good but not quite superstar. Yet the Vikings have 10 defensive players between 65 and 76 grades (out of 100), which suggests that there are no weak links.

The only question about the defense is whether they can survive injuries in certain areas of the defense, particularly at corner. Right now they are as solid as solid gets in the NFL but it’s a long season.

The opposing QB schedule matters toward defensive production going forward as well. The Vikings face Jared Goff (x2), Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams and Jordan Love. Not exactly Manning and Brady but definitely not a group of push-overs either.

Conclusions

When we stack up the Vikings versus the rest of the NFL, it’s hard to argue that anyone had a more impressive opening five games to the season. What we haven’t mentioned yet is that their five wins and No. 1 ranked point differential has come against teams that have tons of talent and high expectations — not a bunch of fumbling franchises. The wins haven’t been fluky since they have led all but three minutes and 26 seconds so far this season.

What we know about the NFL is that offenses and quarterback play is more predictive than defense. While we expect the defense to continue to be excellent, it’s the offensive side of the ball that must maintain top-10 type play in order for them to dominate the remainder of the season, especially since they have two key matchups against their biggest contender for the NFC in Detroit.

But if you are in the camp of being worried that the Vikings will have another epic meltdown, history suggests that it’s a pretty rare occurrence with a team that has performed at this level so far. Bottom line: They are good. Great? We’ll see. By all the numbers so far, definitely good.