Matthew Coller: It's spotlight time for Sam Darnold

The Vikings' QB will be at center stage on Thursday. He can keep answering questions about his sustainability.

Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) looks on before the game against the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

EAGAN — Every single discussion surrounding the Minnesota Vikings this year has been some version of this: “Can Sam Darnold keep playing this good?”

Through six weeks, he has kept the answer at “yes.”

Darnold enters Thursday night’s game against the Los Angeles Rams with 1,370 yards, 12 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and a 104.0 quarterback rating. For those who don’t have a calculator handy, he’s on pace for nearly 3,900 yards and 34 touchdowns.

Actually, if you stretch out the sample size, since 2022 Darnold has started 13 games and in those contests he has 2,702 yards, 20 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and a 98.6 QB rating. That’s the seventh highest QB rating of QBs with 13 starts or more since 2022, just behind CJ Stroud and ahead of Dak Prescott.

What’s interesting about those 13 starts is none of them have come in the limelight of national TV.

It hasn’t always gone swimmingly in late games for Darnold. In his career, the 27-year-old QB has appeared in nine late games and has a 55.5% completion percentage, 5 touchdowns, 9 interceptions and a 64.2 QB rating. The most memorable of those games was a 33-0 loss to New England in which he was caught by the broadcast saying, “I’m seeing ghosts.”

Darnold was very good the last time he played a night game, way back on September 23, 2021, when his Panthers beat the Houston Texans 24-9 and he went for 304 yards on 23-for-34 passing. The previous evening start in front of the national audience before that was a 37-28 loss to the Denver Broncos. Ironically, Vikings current QB3 Brett Rypien was the winning QB in that game.

Like so many things in his career, Thursday night represents an opportunity to reintroduce himself to the NFL world at large. So far the Vikings have played all noon CT starts except their one London game against the New York Jets. That was Darnold’s only game this year in which he did not post a QB rating of at least 100.

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This matchup comes along with a little more juice for the starting QB because he is from California and played his college football at USC.

“Whenever I land in LAX it's always fun to be able to go home, but in the same breath, we’re just going there on a business trip, especially on a short week, but it will be nice to just see some family members and stuff before and after the game, that I haven't seen in quite some time,” Darnold said on Tuesday.

Since arriving, Darnold has consistently downplayed any storylines surrounding him. Against the Jets, he shot down any “revenge game” questions and he didn’t have much to say about Amazon Prime’s bright lights in L.A.

“I'm always excited to just go out there and play football with my teammates, but other than that it's another game, it's another great opportunity,” Darnold said.

The Rams are a good opponent for Darnold to get back into the stand-alone game circuit. Los Angeles ranks 23rd in defensive Expected Points Added, they rank 18th in QB pressure percentage and 23rd in opposing QB rating allowed. A few weeks ago, Kyler Murray posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating versus the Rams. By PFF’s rankings, L.A. grades as the 24th rated coverage team.

That will be a change up for the Vikings offense. All of the teams they have played this year rank in the top 16 in PFF coverage grade, including four in the top seven — the Lions (3rd), Jets (4th), 49ers (5th), Packers (7th).

Because the coverages have been solid, there has been some inconsistency in Darnold’s play. By the statistic “success rate,” which measures the percentage that players are creating productive plays, Darnold ranks 25th in the NFL. Yet he averages the fifth most yards per attempt in the NFL. That suggests that he has been boom or bust and has an element of volatility even within a given game.

The most concerning statistic on Darnold’s resume is his sack rate. He has been taken down behind the line of scrimmage on 9.9% of drop-backs, fourth worst in the league. Combine that with the ninth highest interception percentage and there have been too many negative plays, even amidst a terrific overall season.

Receiver Justin Jefferson was asked on Tuesday what America’s football fans were going to see from Darnold on Thursday Night Football. He alluded to some of the miscues.

“Sam has been playing great… It's just the few little touches throughout the game that we need to fix, the execution on some plays throughout the game, the crucial moments that we need,” Jefferson said.

This week’s matchup offers an interesting dynamic for head coach Kevin O’Connell because he has had success keeping Darnold’s pass attempt numbers in a reasonable place. He has only thrown over 30 passes on one occasion. That’s quite a diversion from Kirk Cousins, who threw 30+ in 21 of 25 starts under KOC.

That has meant more patience required from the receivers — though Jefferson appears to be getting antsy to get back into triple digits.

“I have in these 80, 90 yard games, I definitely gotta get over that hump of 100 yards,” Jefferson said. “That's definitely my plan, but I mean, if you see it on tape, the explosive plays are all over the field, not just me, just all over the field.”

While it doesn’t seem fair to treat every week like a referendum for Darnold, that’s also the price of playing at the top of a conference. Next week’s game has been flexed to Sunday Night Football because the Vikings are a team to watch now. You can bet the next week two weeks will be big for the “can Darnold keep this up” discussion.

But if they come away with a win on Thursday and the Vikings head into a stretch of very winnable games at 6-1, there won’t be much more to question.

“It's going to be one of these games that we're going to show the world that what we're really capable of,” Jefferson said.