Matthew Coller: Should the Vikings adjust trade deadline approach after losses?

The metrics suggest Minnesota still one of the top teams in the NFL despite back-to-back losses.

Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) hugs head coach Kevin O'Connell before the game against the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

At 5-0, it seemed obvious that the Minnesota Vikings should be aiming to do everything possible at the trade deadline to increase their roster strength. After all, it was only the Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs (winners of the last two Super Bowls) who were undefeated at that point. But after two straight losses, the picture doesn’t seem quite as clear. Now the question of whether the Vikings should make moves at the deadline needs to be broken down into a series of other questions in order to reach a conclusion.

For starters: Are they good enough to make an argument as a team that should be spending future draft capital to make mid-season improvements with hopes of elevating their chances at a Super Bowl?

There are a few different big-picture metrics we can use to determine how they match up with the rest of the NFL. DVOA, an opponent and score-adjusted metric that was invented by analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz and is currently housed on FTN Fantasy, says that the Vikings’ decline has been exaggerated. They are still the No. 3 team in DVOA, only behind Baltimore and Detroit and just ahead of Kansas City and Buffalo.

They are seventh in scoring and ninth point points allowed and by point differential, they are sixth. Pro-Football Reference ranks the Vikings’ strength of schedule the second toughest in the league to this point. The offense is 14th in Expected Points Added, which compares production vs. situation, and the defense is still third despite two rough outings.

None of those statistics suggest that the Vikings should hang up the phones at the deadline.

Next question: Can we project the Vikings to be as good as they were in the first seven games going forward?

There may be some pause by the fact that they have the 10th toughest remaining schedule by opponent record, though that is heavily influenced by playing in the NFC North, where they beat the Packers and lost to the Lions by two points. Their next three games come against teams with a combined record of 7-16.

The loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw has to be weighed into the equation. He had only allowed 10 QB pressures through seven games, which is bound to change significantly no matter who takes over at left tackle (or who they trade for). With Sam Darnold ranking among the most sacked QBs per drop-back and the sixth most pressured already, there has to be major concern that the pressure is going to impact his play to the point where they can’t compete against top teams.

However, the Vikings’ remaining schedule has only two of the final 10 games against top-10 opponents in total sacks. The rest of the team has been relatively healthy outside of missing Jordan Addison and Blake Cashman for a couple games. Every team is going to have a key player missing as they go down the stretch. It seems it would be an overreaction to completely change course because of one absence.

Are there other areas where the Vikings could regress? Certainly you can question whether Darnold’s QB rating for the season will finish at 107.2 when his career mark is 81.1. But he is building a growing sample of efficient play with a 99.1 rating since the start of 2022 (14 starts).

The defensive side is where regression is most concerning. They have played like a top five defense but they only grade by PFF as 12th overall and 18th in coverage. Did opponents figure out enough ways to attack them in the last two weeks that it isn’t fixable? Well, they did play against two elite play callers and QBs who have gone to the Super Bowl before and maybe an area that could be improved via trade would make all the difference.

Could they be more dynamic in coverage with one more cornerback? Could they be that much scarier as a pass rush team with one more defensive tackle?

That leads to the next question…

Who can they get?

Speculation about potential trade targets is all over the map. There are not many pure rental players who are upcoming free agents in 2025. Would the Bengals consider trading BJ Hill? It doesn’t seem like they are a team that should be selling off parts with Joe Burrow at QB. The same goes for the Dallas Cowboys and DT Osa Odighizuwa or Denver’s DJ Jones. Miami’s Calais Campbell is the best rental option. He’s 38 years old and has 18 pressures this year and an 86.4 PFF grade in 237 snaps.

At corner, Las Vegas’s Nate Hobbs might be on the table. The Vikings could try to convince the Jets to trade them star CB DJ Reed. New England’s Jonathan Jones could potentially be available.

How about players who are under contract or who could be extended? Jaycee Horn of Carolina doesn’t seem to be on the table, neither does Tennessee Jeffrey Simmons. Arik Armstead of the Jaguars could probably be had but his contract is far from favorable. The Browns might not be willing to move anyone after winning with Jameis Winston but old friend Dalvin Tomlinson comes to mind.

If they are big game hunting, Browns CB Denzel Ward is a potential pie-in-the-sky target. Miami’s Kendall Fuller is on the older side but is still making an impact. He’s under contract for 2025.

With somewhere around $80 million in cap space next season, the Vikings could treat a deadline acquisition as a glorified free agent signing for 2025 in the same way they did with TJ Hockenson in 2022.

These are all intriguing ideas but with limited draft capital…

That’s our next question: What does it cost?

The Vikings had to be inspired by the Bills acquiring a player with Amari Cooper’s pedigree for a third-round pick or the Chiefs getting rusher Josh Uche for a 2026 sixth-round pick. It seems like it’s a buyer’s market with teams seemingly more willing to sell of parts at the deadline than ever.

The problem might be that suddenly there are a lot of teams that are feeling good about themselves. The Eagles have won three in a row and the Rams and 49ers have to feel like they are back in the mix. Buffalo could do more buying, so could Houston. That may raise the interest in the handful of players from flailing teams that everyone will be calling about.

There is an argument for the Vikings avoiding spending draft capital because they are short on recently-drafted players that are playing big roles. Only Ed Ingram, Jalen Nailor, Jordan Addison and Ivan Pace Jr. are starters who are still on rookie contracts for next season. They will expect to have JJ McCarthy, Mekhi Blackmon and possibly Dallas Turner in major roles on rookie contracts as well.

Still, it’s not easy to fill every opening and depth needs just through trades and free agency, even with the QB on a rookie contract. Usually elite talents are not available on the market, whereas the draft has yielded the Vikings their best players i.e. Darrisaw and Justin Jefferson.

So what’s the answer to our bigger question? Does it still make sense for the Vikings to make a deal?

It seems that the answer is still yes but they will need to thread the needle to find the right trade.

If they can find a star difference-making player who is a multi-year option, then it is worth considering giving up their 2025 first-round pick. Otherwise, moving a Day 3 pick for a rental should be possible because the Vikings have shown in the last two weeks their need for additional hands on deck, particularly on the D-line and at cornerback.

The Vikings may wait until after Sunday’s game to see where they stand. At 5-2, they still look like one of the NFL’s best teams. If they lose to a sputtering Colts team with a struggling Year 2 quarterback, then the picture might look different than it does headed into this week.