Matthew Coller: What went right and wrong for Vikings against Jags

A deeper dive on the Vikings' weirdest win of the season.

Nov 10, 2024; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) catches the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images / Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images

EAGAN — While it certainly felt like a lot more went wrong for the Vikings in their 12-7 win over the Jaguars than went right, upon a closer look at the numbers, that’s not exactly the case. So let’s dive into everything we can take away from one of the stranger Vikings victories…

What went right

TJ Hockenson is always open

It’s like he never left. The Vikings star tight end was targeted nine times and caught eight passes for 72 yards. He was particularly good in the middle of the field, making four receptions for 48 yards.

“Those third down catches, working the intermediate area, the big 26-yarder where he got in the middle of the field against man coverage where so much was kind of predicated to where Justin [Jefferson] was and how the split safety man coverage was being distributed,” O’Connell said. “It was kind of an on the fly – not a creation, it’s a base part of what we do but not one you would find living on the call sheet anywhere that we kind of talked about and wanted to get. T.J. going that way and just great execution, throw and run after catch.”

Pass protection

The offensive line had one of their best games of the year in pass pro. No linemen graded lower than a 65 by PFF, Blake Brandel and Brian O’Neill were both over 80. O’Neill pitched a shutout with zero QB pressures allowed. Cam Robinson gave up six but none of them were QB hits or sacks (and he still graded a 71.6, which means some of the pressures may have been due to the QB). Overall Darnold faced pressure on just 15 of 42 drop-backs.

One thing playing to the O-line’s favor was that the Jags blitzed just one time the entire game.

Time of possession

The Vikings held onto the ball for 42:19 to Jacksonville’s 17:41. It marked the only time this entire season in the NFL that a team has had the ball for 42 minutes or more. It was the 24th highest time of possession in the NFL (non-overtime) since 2000. Turns out that it was not the slowest scoring output of a club producing 42+ minutes of possession. That was a 6-3 win by the Seahawks over Cleveland in 2011.

Aaron Jones grinding it out

Part of the reason the Vikings owned the time of possession was that RB Aaron Jones wore down the defense. His longest run was only 13 yards, yet he still came away with 5.2 yards per carry, rushing 17 times for 88 yards and 50 of the yards came after first contact. He also was banged up in the game and returned at the end to try to put the Jaguars away.

O’Connell said that Jones’s injury doesn’t appear serious.

“He came in today feeling pretty good, he’s day to day with the ribs,” O’Connell said. “He might be limited early on in the week as we let him get back on his feet, but feeling really good about having him this week.”

Cam Akers and Ty Chandler also ran 17 times combined for 56 yards.

“Cam [Akers] finding some space in there on some runs and showing some really good vision for two weeks in a row now was really big for us,” O’Connell said. “And then felt Ty [Chandler] coming in the second half there and you felt some explosiveness getting downhill. That group as a whole was a real positive for us on a day where we needed to lean on the run game a little bit more than we have up to this point. I was really proud of the way it was a physical grind it out three, four, five yarder kind of day.”

Blake Cashman’s return

The Vikings got their key linebacker back in the mix — though he didn’t have a huge workout, only taking 35 of the team’s 44 defensive snaps. Cashman picked up a sack, two pressures and had three STOPs (PFF stat for tackles on negative offensive plays) to tie for the team lead in that category.

Cashman getting back into the lineup seemed to have a trickle-down effect to the rest of the defense.

“I think having those guys back in there was just a charge of life of what the original – you put all those puzzle pieces together – the original plan,” O’Connell said. “You see it come into fruition where maybe guys aren’t being stretched or stressed outside of their real roles, which are really versatile but when you can get kind of that sweet spot of guys doing the things within the defense and pairing it all together.”

Run defense

Because the game was close, the Jaguars had opportunities to run the ball, they simply had no success in doing so. In total they gained 3.1 yards per carry on 18 rush attempts. One of the runs went for 18 yards. Outside of that it was utter domination by the Vikings’ D.

In particular, Jonathan Greenard was especially active vs. the run. He had three tackles, all created negative plays for the Jags and he got the highest run defense grade on the team.

Taking the ball away

Following the Vikings 3-takeaway game, they are the No. 1 team in the NFL at forcing opponent turnovers. They lead the league with 29 total takeaways, which equates to one on every five of their opponents’ drives. Byron Murphy Jr. got his fourth pick of the season and Cam Bynum got his third.

Though the two picks were both on good plays, the Vikings did get a good-luck fumble recovery for the second week in a row. Last week a simple handoff bounced into their hands and this week Mac Jones fumbled the snap.

New kicker, long snapper

Filling in for Will Reichard, Parker Romo went 4-for-4. He was the lone scorer in the game for the Vikings. Long snapper Jake McQuaide did have one that wasn’t flawless but holder Ryan Wright still got the ball in place for his kicker.

O’Connell said that he shouted out Romo in his speech to the team on Saturday night.

“I said it the night before the game in front of the whole team, that we all had confidence in him and you’re gonna go do your thing,” O’Connell said. “It’s just the same old thing, you’ve done this ten thousand times, but now you’re gonna be doing it to help the Minnesota Vikings win and that’s exactly what he did. Really proud of Park [Parker Romo] for sure. And we’re gonna need him here for a time where we’re not gonna have Will [Reichard], and we’re gonna kick field goals and we’re going to try to take points when we can get them, and I think he’s off to a great start.”

What went wrong

Sam Darnold’s miscues in the drop-back game

In the 29 drop-backs when the Vikings QB wasn’t using play-action, he went 17-for-28 with 157 yards (5.6 YPA) and three interceptions. PFF graded him a 51.9 passing on those throws. Two of the three picks were inaccurate passes and the other was throwing to a completely covered (and mauled) Justin Jefferson.

Darnold now leads the NFL in interceptions and has the fourth worst turnover-worthy play rate.

“I think it's a it's a little bit of everything, I think there's some footwork things that as you get into the meat of the season you got to make sure you're on top of just every little detail of what is the play, where are my feet and eyes supposed to be, and how disciplined are you, despite how the day has gone,” O’Connell said. “And I think it can be a really good learning lesson for Sam [Darnold] here in our system of just continuously trusting your feet and eyes and let them be your barometer for how you make certain decisions. And I thought there were some things execution wise that could have been better around him.”

Turnover-worthy play rate doesn’t have to be a death knell to success. Out of the top 10 QBs in TWP %, five would be in the postseason if it started today. The Vikings could have overcome Darnold’s mistakes easily had they produced touchdowns on their other drives. They have three other drives where they gained at least 50 yards in the game.

The deep passing game

The Jaguars went to the extreme to keep Darnold from throwing down field. They were effective in keeping the Vikings from hitting big plays, giving up just five completions on 13 attempts on throws that traveled more than 10 yards in the air and 88 yards.

O’Connell explained how he viewed the Jags’ strategy:

“I think we’ve been through kind of a couple games like that before where there’s trying to have a coverage plan to Justin, and there’s an entire aspect of team defense against Justin,” O’Connell said. “Give them credit, they were willing to sacrifice time of possession, the run game, tight ends working the middle of the field, things like that. And if we don’t turn the ball over maybe they look back on that as was that really the best way to go about it? …I think when we can punch the ball in the endzone and force them to have to think about the way they’re playing.”

Will we see opponents do similar things to take away Jefferson and Darnold’s deep shots? It’s possible but doesn’t seem to deviate too far away from how the NFL’s top receiver is usually covered. The Jags just went farther with the “shell” than most teams and paid for it in terms of yards and time of possession.

Holding the ball too long

On Darnold’s 15 pressures charted by PFF, he averaged holding the ball over four seconds. Meaning the O-line was giving him time to throw and the ball wasn’t coming out of his hands. Some scrambles would increase that number but he still threw 12 passes and gained just 4.5 yards per attempt when under pressure.

For the entire game, Darnold averaged 3.26 seconds from snap to throw, which is an unusually long time in the NFL. Darnold is now fifth in the league in terms of holding the ball the longest and all the QBs ahead of him are scramblers.

When Darnold has thrown the ball in under 2.5 seconds (per PFF), he has the sixth best QB rating in the NFL at 103.7, just behind Jared Goff. When he waits over 2.5 seconds, that number goes down to 94.8. Importantly, his turnover-worthy play rate jumps from 2.0% to 5.3% when he hangs onto the ball more than 2.5 seconds.

Short yardage, screen game

On third-and-1 with a chance to put the game away, O’Connell called a pass play that was blown up immediately by the Jaguars. It was the third time that Darnold has been sacked on third or fourth down and less than three yards to go. He’s also been intercepted twice.

Are the Vikings passing too much in short yardage situations? Well, they have converted 52% of their attempts this year, which is 11th in the NFL on 23 passes and 16 runs. The only team that has fewer rushing attempts on third or fourth-and-short situations is Houston with 12 rushes. Percentage wise, the Bengals, Texans, Bucs and Jets are the only teams whose passes far outweigh their runs. Aaron Jones only has six of the 16 rushes in short situations and has four first downs. Seven of those are QB sneaks with all seven getting first downs.