Matthew Coller: Which Vikings problems are concerning going forward?

At 5-2 the Vikings are in good position but two straight losses opened the door to a lot more questions about their strength.

Oct 24, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

When a team loses two games in a row, everyone becomes Sherlock Holmes when it comes to looking for problems. The difficult part is figuring out which issues are actually troublesome going forward and which are nitpicky overreaction.

Let’s dive into some of the things that went sideways and how they might approach fixing what ailed them against Detroit and Los Angeles…

Offenses finding “the blueprint” to Vikings defense

The problem:

The Lions and Rams deployed similar strategies to get receivers open and the ball out of their quarterbacks’ hands vs. a Vikings defense that led the league in pressure percentage through the first five weeks of the season. Detroit QB Jared Goff went 10-for-10 for 127 yards when targeting the middle of the field and Matthew Stafford completed 8-of-11 passes in the middle for 75 yards. Both quarterbacks’ snap-to-throw time was 2.5 seconds (per PFF).

Detroit and L.A. used extra blockers to slow down blitzes. Goff vs. the Vikings blitz went 15-for-16 with 165 yards and a touchdown and Stafford hit 10-of-13 for 128 yards.

The two clubs, run by elite offensive play callers, also found ways to run the ball when other opponents had struggled to effectively move the ball on the ground before. The Lions gained 144 yards and Rams picked up 107 yards rushing. The 49ers were the only team to clear 100 yards rushing prior to the last two weeks.

Is it fixable?

The top fix to the Vikings dealing with the “blueprint” is getting Blake Cashman back. Heading into this week he was graded as PFF’s ninth best linebacker. He was rated as a top-notch run defender, quality blitzer and he covered a ton of ground in coverage. Cashman also acted as the play caller. He spent all summer learning Brian Flores’s language and was fluent by the time he reached the season. Cashman’s changes at the line of scrimmage drove QBs crazy and caused a lot of confusion. Getting him back should have a big impact.

The Vikings also won’t face play callers as good as Ben Johnson and Sean McVay every week or QBs who have been to the Super Bowl like Goff and Stafford or receivers as good as St. Brown, Kupp and Nacua or running backs as good as Gibbs and Williams or offensive lines as good as the Lions.

If/when the Vikings make the playoffs, they will face teams that have the capability to take advantage of some of the defensive weaknesses. But in the coming weeks, it’s hard to find an opponent that can play on the same level as the Lions or healthy Rams offenses. They play against the Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Bears and Cardinals — none of which rank higher than 15th in points per game.

Offensive inconsistency

The problem:

Following the Vikings’ loss to the Los Angeles Rams, they ranked 22nd of 23 teams that played at least seven games in total offensive snaps (397) and the third most defensive plays in the NFL (465). That’s an entire game’s worth of defensive snaps more than the offense has been on the field.

The Vikings rank 28th in average drive time and 32nd in plays per drive offensively.

There is a trickle-down effect of the Vikings offense not getting many plays is that playmakers haven’t always gotten enough touches. Jordan Addison, for example, has dropped from 4.1 to 2.8 receptions per game but relative to the actual number of throws per game, his percentage of catches isn’t different. The Vikings complete 18.2 passes per game and Addison gets 15.3% of them. Last year they completed 24.9 per game and Addison got 16.4% of them. Even as much as Justin Jefferson has been successful, he’s still getting 1.6 catches per game below his career high.

Is it fixable?

Part of the reason the Vikings have had so many fewer plays is that they have been a downfield passing offense that relies on explosive plays. Darnold entered Sunday ranked second in terms of average depth of target. When they score, they score quick but when an explosive play doesn’t happen then drives tend to end in punts or field goals.

Also because they have spent the vast majority of the season leading games, the run-pass ratio has been much more even than in previous years when they were often playing in shootouts. Before Sunday’s contests they ranked 20th in the percentage of plays that are passes. As the season goes along there should be more games that go back and forth and lean on the quarterback.

Passing on first down is something the Vikings can lean into more. Darnold is completing 74% of his passes on first down and averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt but he’s only thrown 62 first-down passes to 116 runs. When the score is only separated by one score, they have still been run first (36 passes to 58 runs).

Over the last two games Darnold has proven that he can be successful throwing underneath effectively. On passes under 10 yards, Darnold went 11-for-13 with 107 yards against the Rams and 14-for-15 for 68 yards vs. the Lions.

Answers outside of Aaron Jones

The problem:

Make no mistake, Aaron Jones has been a revelation for the Vikings in the backfield. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has 22 receptions at 10.3 yards per catch. Not to mention he can be called upon in the pass protection game any time Kevin O’Connell needs. But using him at his current pace would be a tough ask. Jones is on pace to carry the ball 253 times and catch 53 passes. Both of those numbers would beat Jones’s career highs by a pretty significant margin. He had 272 touches (runs + catches) in 2022 and 285 back in 2019. Outside of those two seasons, the star running back has never had a season over 250.

Is it fixable?

The Vikings presumably traded for Cam Akers to give them another option beyond Ty Chandler, whose snap counts were 20, 19 and 22 in the first three weeks but have sunk to just 11 and 8 plays in the last two games. That’s even more stark when you consider that they played those two games in four days and that Jones was “not 100 percent” in the game against the Lions according to O’Connell.

Prior to getting hurt last season, Akers played 27, 17 and 23 snaps for the Vikings while mixing in with Alex Mattison. It may have been a difficult task for Akers to come in with back-to-back games in short order but with the mini bye week, he could fit into a regular role to reduce Jones’s workload.

Defense getting worn down

The problem:

On the defensive side, there are concerns about players getting exhausted all over the field. Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard both rank in the top five in snaps among edge rushers. Greenard played 697 last year and he’s already been on the field for 378 in seven games. Harrison Phillips has the 15th most snaps at defensive tackle. Harrison Smith is 13th among safeties. Stephon Gilmore 23rd among corners.

In terms of rotations, Brian Flores has called upon situational pass rushers often with Pat Jones playing 254 snaps and Jihad Ward getting 160 reps but the secondary has rarely changed. Backup defensive backs Theo Jackson, Jay Ward, Bobby McCain and Akayleb Evans and Fabian Moreau have combined for 41 snaps all year.

Is it fixable:

That has to start with the offense staying on the field longer. If they can’t, then there is only one obvious answer: A trade.

If the Vikings are willing to spend their remaining draft capital (a first and two fifths), they could aim to acquire a star player or add role players who add to the depth, specifically on the interior of their defensive and/or at defensive back.

Flores could also show some more belief in some of the players on the sidelines. Players like Evans, Moreau, McCain and Jackson have plenty of previous experience. They may need to be mixed in. The depth on the inside includes Taki Tiamani and Jalen Redmond. They have totaled 111 snaps combined but could see more work going forward.

Dallas Turner is another factor. If the Vikings show more belief in their first-round pick, he could give either Van Ginkel or Greenard a rest. Whether that happens or not is yet to be seen.