Matthew Coller: You never know when a Vikings win-now season will arrive

Historically speaking the Vikings' best seasons often come out of nowhere -- and that's the case again in 2024.

Nov 26, 1998; Irving, TX, USA; FILE PHOTO; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Randall Cunningham (7) looking to throw against the Dallas Cowboys during the 1998 season at Texas Stadium. Mandatory Credit: RVR Photos-Imagn Images / RVR Photos-Imagn Images

EAGAN — Are the Vikings really this good?

Well, historically speaking when they go 4-0, we still don’t really know for sure. In 2016 they started 4-0 and finished the season out of the playoffs. The following year they started 2-2 and then went on a eight-game win streak and ended the season in the NFC Championship.

That poor 2003 Vikings club, whose dreams were shattered by current QB coach Josh McCown, ran their undefeated record up to 6-0 before sliding down the other side of the mountain. But five years prior to that they won the opening seven games and were a wide-left kick away from the Super Bowl.

As we have the conversation about whether the 2024 Vikings are “for real” or not, it’s worth remembering that we have basically never seen a great Vikings season coming since the Super Bowl era. And by “we,” I don’t just mean the local fans and media. I mean anybody.

When they went 13-4 in Kevin O’Connell’s first season, the preseason expectations could have been described as lukewarm. Nobody thought they would be bad because there was still so much talent left over from the Zimmer era and an infusion of positivity at the HC position and a pass-heavy offense figured to give them a boost. But they were not in the conversation as true contenders. The preseason over-under was 9.5 and they had the 16th highest Super Bowl odds.

That season came out of nowhere in a different way than 2024. This year the Vikings have been bashing opponents’ faces (save for the fourth quarter in Green Bay), whereas the 2022 squad was known as the, “they can’t keep getting away with this” team. It was magical and mind boggling — and a mirage. It wasn’t just the one-score games but the 400-yard performances by opposing offenses and the number of field goals or turnovers required in late-game possessions going the purple’s way. Stats like DVOA, that are meant to sift through the noise of total yardage, were sending up flares into the air that the magic carpet ride might not last. Alas, it did not.

All those metrics that are meant to really tell you about the good/bad teams love the current Vikings. DVOA has them No. 1. They are 10th in offensive Expected Points Added and first in defensive EPA. When you see those little charts tweeted by analytics experts, the Vikings are in the proper quadrant to be called good, no matter what they’re measuring.

That wasn’t the Case right away in 2017 (get it?) but it eventually became that way. In the first four weeks of 2017, the Vikings demolished the Saints, struggled in Pittsburgh with Case Keenum at the helm, threw for almost 400 yards in a win over the Bucs and then lost a game to Detroit where they scored seven points. Their winning streak seemed like it might be fugazi at first because they defeated the likes of Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer, Joe Flacco, and Brett Hundley (after injuring Aaron Rodgers). But a 24-7 win over the Rams, whose offense ranked No. 1 in the NFL, and then a road victory over the Falcons the following week marked the moment everyone decided they were scary good. That wasn’t until Week 13.

In 2017, the Vikings’ preseason expectations were similar to 2022. There was no reason to believe they would be a bad team because they still had Mike Zimmer’s defense from the previous two seasons and a pair of emerging receivers. Few expected them to be at the Super Bowl’s door though. Their over-under win total was 8.5 and they had the 13th best Super Bowl odds.

It wouldn’t have been tremendously jarring if the ‘17 team had been led by Sam Bradford considering he put together a strong 2016 and seemed to be on the same page as Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The fact that the Vikings were led by a journeyman backup QB who had previously won nine of 24 career starts with a 78.4 quarterback rating made it truly unexpected.

There’s a shade of that in 2024. Sam Darnold’s previous record, 21-35 with a 78.3 rating, was reason for a lot of skepticism. Like ‘17, the rest of the roster is filled with experienced talent. Just like there was Diggs and Thielen, the Jefferson-Addison-Nailor combination is flying open all over the field thus far. All three receivers are averaging more than 17 yards per catch and Darnold has gone 34-for-48 when targeting them.

Nobody knows better than Keenum that Darnold is going to face questions about his sustainability until he’s holding the Lombardi Trophy. There is a distinct difference between the two fellas though: Size and arm talent. Keenum was needled by his own head coach throughout 2017 about getting away with risky, floating passes. There’s nothing floaty about the lasers that the former No. 3 overall pick throws. The longer this goes on, the easier it is to buy into the idea that Darnold could have been this good all along given the proper environment. However, the game against Green Bay did open the door to concern about turnovers with a red-zone interception and strip sack that let the Packers back in the game.

The 2009 season was probably the least shocking in Vikings recent history because it only took three weeks for everybody to know what was happening. Once Brett Favre found Greg Lewis in the back of the end zone against San Francisco, the entire state was on board. That team had been stacked up with Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Antoine Winfield and a beastly offensive line to the point where it was obvious they were a quarterback away from something special. The preseason odds reflected that, giving the Vikings the eighth best chance to win.

The unexpected nature of 2009 was simply the fact that Favre was there. The only mildly similar part of that to the present day would be the Vikings moving on from their proven quarterback, drafting a guy in the top 10 and then ending up with a journeyman as The Guy.

In terms of shocker seasons, 1998 is one of the all-timers in NFL history. The over-under preseason total was 8.5, which the Vikings nearly doubled. Randall Cunningham had been out of the league until 1997. He played five ugly games and didn’t even enter the season as the starter. Before the year started, Randy Moss was just a theory and the 90s teams had so often been middling behind bounce-around QBs or wash-ups that they figured to repeat history.

It was the fifth game of the season where it became real. The Vikings went to Green Bay on October 5, 1998, and laid down a whooping for the ages on the 4-0 Packers. Cunningham threw for 442 yards and four touchdowns while Favre threw three picks.

The first half of last week’s game felt like history repeating itself. The monkey paw granting another devilish wish. The Vikings were up 28-0 in an eyeblink as the cheesed fans sat in a stupor. The second half was a reminder that the bar the ‘98 Vikings set was obscene. That team outscored its opponents 556 to 296. It’s going to be a while before we go there.

In terms of out-of-nowhere runs, the 1987 team beats them all by Super Bowl odds. Pro-Football Reference lists the ‘87 Vikings as having entered ‘87 with the 17th best chances to win. But that season can’t really be compared to anything modern day considering there was a strike that put the Vikings behind the eight ball and they scrambled to get to 8-7. That club, however, did include a four-game win streak. They won a 44-38 overtime game against Dallas to advance to 7-4. Then lost three of their final four games. Who would have dreamed that they would crush the Saints and 49ers in the playoffs? Football is strange like that sometimes.

The cliches are really true about things never being as good as they seem when a team is playing well or as bad as they seem when a team is struggling.

Anyway, for 90s kids, did you ever see those bumper stickers that said, “Jesus is coming, look busy!” I’m reminded of that when it comes to a season that nobody expected to look this good. “It’s Super Bowl or bust time, act accordingly!”

Suddenly Kevin O’Connell is fielding questions about whether he ever thought the team would be this good.

“I didn't pay a ton of attention to [preseason expectations] so I don't know what necessarily were the opinions, everybody's entitled to them but I do think the greatest thing about this league is we get to roll a ball out for four quarters and figure it out together,” O’Connell said. “Sometimes we figure those things out on a little bit different timetable than maybe you guys do. I luckily get the opportunity to have a lot of moments where I get to talk to the team long before the first result, second, third, or fourth, and I tried to get out in front of this with my confidence with the team.”

Paraphrased, O’Connell’s thinking is that if they already believed they could be this good heading into the season, they aren’t dealing with any type of surprise, even if gamblers who picked under 6.5 wins are.

Aaron Jones said that when he signed with the Vikings, he figured the team to be quite competitive because of who would be playing around him.

“I definitely thought we’d be good,” Jones said. “I said we had all the pieces, even during camp or OTAs when I first got here and people were asking.”

Well, O’Connell and Jones were right. That changes the measuring stick for success. Just because the preseason projections had this team as being so-so at best doesn’t mean that we need to treat them like the little engine that could get to nine wins. They are built on a foundation of big spending with free agents across the board and a quarterback who was picked No. 3 overall. In hindsight, it feels silly to have thought that a team with Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Christian Darrisaw, Jordan Addison, Stephon Gilmore and Harrison Smith wouldn’t be good. That’s a lot of talent and money. Time to win.

The Vikings also have a head coach who has won 13 games in a season and won the Super Bowl as an offensive coordinator. This isn’t a plucky noob who’s riding a wave. Brian Flores’s history is riddled with success. Time to win.

The other thing we know is, despite the projection of the Vikings’ future, there is no such thing as projecting the future in the NFL. In 2015, the Vikings thought it was the start of something big and then their fate took a turn. In 2018, the Vikings thought that Kirk Cousins was the final piece to the puzzle and they could run it all back. That was not the way it went. Same with 2010 and 1999.

The NFC might never be easier than it is this season. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels could soon ascend to elite status but no rookie QB has ever won the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are down. The Packers are flawed. The 49ers are banged up. Detroit may be the only other team that looks close to the Vikings. How many years is that going to be the case?

That’s not to suggest this is a Last Dance or anything, it’s just the nature of the beast.

What does all of that mean, exactly? Well, possibly the organization’s approach to the trade deadline. Draft picks are great, when you have a chance to really win something, proven players are better.

It might be as simple as dealing with the pressure of expectations now that the bar has been raised. How can O’Connell navigate Darnold through the first season of his career where he’s leading a legit winner? How will Darnold bounce back when he ultimately has a bad stretch. No champion rolls to an easy title. When O’Connell was OC with the Rams they had a three-game losing streak and his QB struggled at times.

Once a team starts winning, everyone studies them that much harder. Every game gets talked about that much more. Every loss feels that much worse.

How long it lasts may depend a lot on what happens over the next few weeks. A win against New York would allow the Vikings to head into the softest part of their schedule at 6-1 if they split with the Lions and Rams. A loss against the Jets could put them in a spot for a potential slide with Detroit and then a quick turnaround vs. L.A. on Thursday Night Football.

There’s a long way to go before we can declare this as one of those seasons. But make no mistake, it’s a great place to be for the Vikings. Things haven’t felt this way in a while.