NFL analyst thinks Sam Darnold could still wind up as a bottom-12 starting QB

Darnold's hot start to the season came hit a snag in Week 5 against the Jets.

Oct 6, 2024; Tottenham, ENG; Minnesota Vikings Quarterback Sam Darnold (14) looks to throw a pass in the 1st Quarter against New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. / Shaun Brooks-Imagn Images

ESPN's Seth Walder wrote a recent story revisiting his preseason bold prediction for all 32 NFL teams. For the Vikings, his prediction was that Sam Darnold "will finish the season outside the top 20 in QBR." Five weeks into the season, Darnold is 14th in QBR, so while he seems unlikely to finish 21st or worse, it's not out of the question.

"As good as the Vikings have been in their undefeated start to the season, Darnold still only ranks 14th (58.7)," Walder wrote. "Don't get me wrong, he has been much more productive than I expected, and I imagine this bold prediction will flop. But 14th through five weeks doesn't put him clear of 21st at the end of the season, especially given his history."

Darnold had a QBR between 63 and 82 in each of the season's first four games, with three of those being above 73. But his ugly 19.6 QBR in Sunday's loss to the Jets — a game where Darnold went 14 of 31 with no TDs, a pick, and four sacks — dropped his season-long score below 60.

By the way, if you're wondering what QBR is, it's an ESPN-created stat that "measures nearly every aspect of quarterback play, from passing to designed runs to scrambles to turnovers to penalties." It's designed to "isolate each NFL quarterback's contribution to his team's fortunes" and is also adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses.

Other metrics view Darnold's five-week start more favorably, even after the poor showing in London. He's 6th in passer rating, 9th in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), 11th in expected points added (EPA) per play, and 7th in completion percentage over expected (CPOE).

It should be noted that Darnold's rough game last week came against a Jets team that has one of the best pass defenses in the league. The Lions will be tough in Week 7, but the schedule generally opens up for the Vikings after their bye week. With T.J. Hockenson expected to return from injury in the next couple weeks, Darnold should have a good opportunity to bounce back from the London game and continue to play well under Kevin O'Connell.