Vikings should've done what Dan Campbell likely would've done late in Sunday's game

Going for it on fourth down is Campbell's thing. Kevin O'Connell should've taken a page from his book.

Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell and Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell shakes hands after the game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

One could argue that Kevin O'Connell didn't live up to Minnesota's "Bold North" mantra on Sunday when he elected to punt the ball back to Detroit rather than go for the kill while leading 29-28 late in the game.

The situation had the Vikings facing a fourth-and-four yards to go from their own 28-yard line. They held a one-point lead and there was 2:41 left in the game. Going for the first down would've been risky, but the data suggest the odds were slightly in Minnesota's favor to pick up a first down.

According to the automated X account, 4th down decision bot, the situation called for a strong recommendation to go for it rather than punt the ball back to Detroit. Had the Vikings gone for it and picked up the first down, their win probability would've jumped to 76%. Per the bot, the Vikings had a 52% chance of converting the first down.

Had they failed, their win probability would've dropped from 57% to 37%. But simply by punting their win probability shrank from 57% to 53%.

---> DET (28) @ MIN (29) <---
MIN has 4th & 4 at the MIN 28, Q4 02:41

Recommendation (STRONG): 👉 Go for it (+4.3 WP)
Actual play: 🏈🦵 R.Wright punts 51 yards to DET 21, Center-A.DePaola. K.Raymond to DET 30 for 9 yards (T.Sherfield). pic.twitter.com/xl9DyLVMgM

— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 20, 2024

Minnesota punted the ball and Detroit took over at their own 30-yard line with 2:32 remaining. Three straight plays of 14, 16 and 14 yards, respectively, had the Lions at Minnesota's 22-yard line with 1:07 to play. From there, Detroit killed clock and forced the Vikings to burn three timeouts before Jack Fox booted the winning field from 44 yards with only 15 seconds to go.

Had the roles been reversed and Dan Campbell was charged with making the call to go for it or punt, history suggests that he would've kept the offense on the field, aiming for the kill shot. Detroit is 5 for 10 on fourth down attempts this season — including a failed fake punt on fourth down on the opening drive against the Vikings — and Campbell's Lions were second in the NFL last season with 40 attempts on fourth down.

League-wide, teams have gone for it on fourth down 290 times this season and converted them 159 times. That's a success rate of 54.8%. Not all fourth downs are created equal, but the bot says the success rate when needing four yards on fourth down is 52% and Minnesota, at least in that situation, trusted a defense that was getting eviscerated by Jared Goff rather than trusting the numbers.

Had Minnesota gone for it and failed, Detroit would've been in position to take the lead with a field goal or score a touchdown, but there would've been more time on the clock and and they still would've had the two-minute warning.

Hindsight is 20:20, but this scenario could arise again this season. What will O'Connell do then?