Matthew Coller: Darnold vs. Goff is a battle of elite supporting casts

The Vikings may need their banged-up running back in order to execute it to perfection.

Oct 6, 2024; Tottenham, ENG; Minnesota Vikings Quarterback Sam Darnold (14) calls a play in the 2nd Quarter against New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shaun Brooks-Imagn Images / Shaun Brooks-Imagn Images

EAGAN — We like to make football games between two teams made up of dozens of players and coaches into boxing matches between the two quarterbacks. In the purple trunks, from USC, weighing 225 pounds, Saaaaaammmmm Darnolllldddddd. In the Honolulu blue trunks, from Cal, weighing 217 pounds, Jaaaaaareeeeeed Goffffffff.

From a hype perspective, it’s always made sense to put the QB names up on the marquee. Manning vs. Brady. Mahomes vs. Allen. Who isn’t tuning in for that? But that’s just not reality. The two quarterbacks that will be facing off at US Bank Stadium on Sunday with the top of the NFC North (sorta) at stake also have the best built rosters around them.

If we look at the PFF grades for the supporting casts, we can see where each QB is getting the most help from their roster. For the Lions that starts on the offensive line. The unit in front of Goff ranks 8th in pass blocking and 6th in run blocking. Darnold’s pass protection ranks 17th after a tough day versus the Jets but the two tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill are graded 8th and 12th overall, which is particularly outstanding considering they have faced Brian Burns, Nick Bosa, Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter and Rashan Gary.

As far as pass-catchers go, the Lions are fourth and Vikings ninth in PFF grade. Goff’s main weapon for years has been Amon-Ra St. Brown but this year former first-rounder Jameson Williams has emerged as a deep threat with 16 receptions for 365 yards and three touchdowns. Former Bronco Tim Patrick has added another option with eight catches.

Darnold will get his first taste of Justin Jefferson vs. the Lions. While Detroit memorably slowed him down once in 2022, that was the only time the Lions’ secondary wasn’t burnt to a crisp by the NFL’s best receiver. In eight career games against Detroit, Jefferson has 62 catches for 1,073 yards. That’s nearly 500 yards more than he has against any other team.

The Vikings have hit deep passes to other receivers Jalen Nailor and Jordan Addison, who have 280 yards on just 17 receptions combined. Darnold has spread the ball around to TE Johnny Mundt, WR Brandon Powell, WR Trent Sherfield and TE Josh Oliver as well. Combined they have 174 yards on 19 receptions.

Both teams have elite backfields. The Lions rank seventh in total rushing behind their duo David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. They have incredibly similar numbers with the Montgomery putting up 352 yards at 4.7 yards per carry and Gibbs totaling 348 yards on 5.3 YPC.

Darnold’s backfield is a little less clear. Aaron Jones, the No. 3 highest graded RB in the NFL by PFF, suffered an injury in London against the New York Jets. On Wednesday’s injury report Jones was listed as “DNP — Hamstring.”

“Aaron is going to progress throughout the week and hopefully has a chance to go on Sunday,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said.

Asked if he had any sense for his status on Sunday, Jones said: “I do not. We're going to see how the week progresses, plan on going out there tomorrow, practice in, and Friday, and pretty much base it off of that.”

If Jones can’t go, that will leave the backfield to Ty Chandler and newly-acquired Cam Akers. While he had several big runs taken away by penalties, Chandler’s stat sheet only shows 3.5 yards per carry on 42 attempts this year. The Vikings are hoping Akers brings more versatility and toughness to the backfield to pair with Chandler’s speed and explosiveness.

“He brings a lot of juice,” Jones said of Akers. “We all piggyback off of each other from the knowledge to what we see on the field. So I'm definitely excited to have him….I feel like our running back room is versatile.”

The other thing going for these well-supported quarterbacks is that their play-callers have hacked the play-action system. Goff ranks No. 1 with 12.8 yards per pass attempt when deploying a play-fake and Darnold is 5th at 10.2 YPA.

Darnold said that early-down success is key to getting as many opportunities to run play-action as they can.

“I think the biggest thing is staying ahead of the chains, right? I think if…you're in first-and-10 and then you get into second-and-medium, it opens up your play -action game,” Darnold said. “It opens up the run game on second down as well.”

With two defenses that will be focused on the run game, the potential exists for each play caller to create explosives by selling the run.

“When you use play-action, you get the linebackers to bite down on the run,” Darnold said. “Maybe you get some secondary to bite up on the run. And you just have to be able to throw your layered throws…. and to be able to play really fast, whether you want to take a deep shot, throw it in those intermediate areas, or even check the ball down.”

The Vikings’ chances of slowing down Detroit’s run and play-action game may have taken a hit due to an injury to linebacker Blake Cashman. He ranks as PFF’s 10th best linebacker against the run this season and ninth in coverage. If he can’t play, there will have to be an effort by committee to make up the difference.

“Kamu [Grugier-Hill] has been awesome when he stepped in there,” O’Connell said. “[Ivan Pace Jr.] will be a little bit more of a hub of communication in the short term. I think whether it's [Josh] Metellus, whether it's the different personnel groupings that we use, we've got a whole bunch of flexibility with some of those edge players as well about how we can align. So, we'll just take it really a day at a time as we put together the prep, figure out what works best as far as defending one of the best offenses in the NFL.”

Detroit’s defense is slowed by their own loss of a top-notch player. Pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson was lost for the season when he suffered a leg injury in Detroit’s win over Dallas. That may change the Lions’ approach to creating pressure against Darnold.

“I think they're the number one blitzing team on third down in the NFL,” O’Connell said. “They play an attacking style, it might not be identical or similar to Flo's [Brian Flores] defense and our attacking style, everybody has their own flavor, but I think A.G. [Aaron Glenn] does a phenomenal job and it's always a challenge to play against these guys. They've got really good personnel.”

In two seasons of matchups between the Vikings and Lions, the four games have produced a total of 213 points and have only been separated by a total of 23 points. If the quarterbacks perform behind their supporting casts like they have in previous games, we could be in for another tight contest.

“Dan [Campbell] is one of the best coaches in our league and his team and his staff, everything that they've got going on is going to be a heck of a challenge and really with how well everybody's playing in our division these division games are going to be really important,” O’Connell said.