Vikings' Strength of Schedule Among NFL's Five Toughest in 2024

The Vikings could be in for a difficult transitional season this year.

Jan 7, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) / David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

This could be a long season for the Vikings. They're in a year of transition at the quarterback position, so the 2024 outlook was always going to be less-than-rosy once they let Kirk Cousins walk in free agency. But Minnesota's odds of making the postseason are even slimmer due to a schedule that ranks among the NFL's most difficult.

Most strength of schedule rankings go by the previous-year records of each opponent on the slate. That can be interesting, but it doesn't take into account the changes that have occurred over the offseason. A more useful way to project strength of schedule is by looking at the projected win totals for all of a team's opponents in the upcoming season. That's what Sharp Football Analysis has done. Using those Vegas win totals, the Vikings have the fifth-hardest schedule in the league this year. Only the Steelers, Patriots, Browns, and Ravens have tougher slates.

It really hurt the Vikings that they "won" the tiebreaker with the Bears in last season's standings. Both teams finished 7-10, and it came down to a common games tiebreaker that gave the Vikings a third-place finish in the NFC North. That means that in addition to six divisional games, four against the NFC West, and four against the AFC South, the Vikings are facing the third-place teams from the NFC South, NFC East, and AFC East. Those are the Falcons, Giants, and Jets. And while the Falcons and Jets only won 7 games apiece last season, they both have projected win totals of 9.5 in 2024 thanks to the presence of Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. That's a good example of why using win totals to forecast strength of schedule is more insightful than using 2023 records.

By finishing in last place, the Bears get to face the Commanders, Panthers, and Patriots this season. Those teams won ten games combined last season and have projected win totals of 6.5, 4.5, and 4.5. Because they get those three teams and play the Vikings (6.5) twice, the Bears actually have the third-easiest schedule in Sharp's rankings. The Vikings getting the Falcons and Jets and two games against the Bears (8.5) is how they ended up with the 28th-easiest schedule despite having 12 of the same 17 games as Chicago.

More: Five Takeaways From the Vikings' 2024 Regular Season Schedule

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