Which NFC North team is best poised for success over the next several years?
The NFC North is becoming a powerhouse of a division. The Detroit Lions were one half away from going to the Super Bowl last season. The Green Bay Packers appear to have yet another quarterback to rally around. Meanwhile, both the Chicago Bears and Vikings drafted quarterbacks in the top 10 of this year’s draft and have built strong offenses to position them into.
On paper, it’s not going to be an easy feat winning the NFC North over the next handful of years. So, let’s gaze into our crystal ball and look at which teams are set up to be the best in the division this upcoming season, five years from now and then 10 years from now.
One Year (Lions, Packers, Vikings, Bears)
This one is the easiest to project. The Lions overhauled their defense and locked up several of their young offensive stars to long-term deals. Retaining offensive coordinator Ben Johnson for another season will help them once again have a top-5 offense in 2024. If the defense takes a step forward, the Lions could be in the Super Bowl when February rolls around.
After the Lions, it looks like the Packers could be the second-best team in the North. Jordan Love ended last season on a heater, but the up-and-down nature of his first full season as a starter leaves plenty of questions about the future. Moving on from Aaron Jones, in favor of Josh Jacobs, is questionable. Big-time playmakers leaving in the offseason and a new defensive coordinator make the Packers' defense a big question mark heading into the season.
The Bears and Vikings are on similar trajectories, even though they took very different paths to get there. At this point in the offseason, there is seemingly more positivity around what No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and the Bears can do over Sam Darnold and the Vikings. This will be a learning season for both Minnesota and Chicago. We give the edge to the Vikings because they have a veteran QB with a high-powered offense, whereas the Bears are relying on a rookie QB with a stacked offense.
Five Years (Bears, Lions, Vikings, Packers)
Now we get to the pure speculation. First overall picks have a high hit rate, which makes it fairly safe to say Williams will be successful in Chicago. Keenan Allen, 32, will more than likely be gone by this point, but five years from now, the chemistry between Williams and receivers D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze should be among the best in the league. A young, developing secondary will also make the Bears a formidable opponent and likely a Super Bowl contender.
Jared Goff will be turning 35 years old at this point, that’s right around when quarterbacks start falling off — unless their name is Tom Brady. Detroit will remain a powerhouse due to an abundance of young talent reaching their primes at this point in time.
Minnesota’s future hinges entirely on J.J. McCarthy’s development. That should be made easier by having a QB-friendly head coach and elite offensive weapons in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings dumped a lot of resources into the defense last offseason; if those bets pay off, then Minnesota could be battling with the Bears and Lions for the top of the division. If not, then the Vikings will be in the same place they’ve been over the past six years — in the middle.
Green Bay has a difficult future to predict. While Love could be the quarterback we saw in the second half of last season that torched defenses, he also could turn out to be the guy we saw at the beginning of the season that struggled. Injury woes have hampered Christian Watson’s development into a top-end receiver. As mentioned before, injuries have also hurt the defense. Right now, it’s easy to see the defense being an anchor for Green Bay in five years’ time. However, if Love does become the quarterback we saw in the latter half of last season, that would indicate the Packers landed their third straight generational quarterback, which could spell trouble for the rest of the NFC North.
10 Years (Bears, Vikings, Packers, Lions)
We’re now at the silly point in the exercise, so let’s lean into it. Goff is firmly retired at this point, and that leaves a gaping hole in the Detroit’s once-powerful offense. They plummet back to earth and occupy the division basement once again. Meanwhile, the Packers have struggled to build around Love, who has more of a Kirk Cousins-type career than an Aaron Rodgers-type career.
The Lions and Packers trail behind the Bears and Vikings, who have battled over the division the past several seasons. Chicago has the upper hand over Minnesota after Williams turns into the next great NFL quarterback. McCarthy has also turned out to be the serial winner he was in high school and college. With Jefferson nearing retirement, questions begin to arise over what is the next evolution for Kevin O’Connell’s offense in Minnesota.
JONATHAN HARRISON