Will 49ers QB Brock Purdy Have a Statistical Regression in 2024?

And a big reason he didn't win the MVP is because he got exposed on Christmas night against the Baltimore Ravens.

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) looks / Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

It could be tough for Brock Purdy to top the statistical production and efficiency he produced the past season and a half.

His numbers were off the charts last year. He ranked 4th in completion percentage (69.4), led the league in touchdown percentage (7.0), yards per pass attempt (9.6), yards per completion (13.9) and quarterback rating (113.0). He had the 14th highest passer rating of all time for a single season, and the highest passer rating in 49ers franchise history -- higher than Steve Young in 1994 (112.8) and Joe Montana in 1989 (112.4).

With numbers like that, it's amazing Purdy didn't win the MVP Award.

And a big reason he didn't win the MVP is because he got exposed on Christmas night against the Baltimore Ravens. He didn't just play poorly in that game -- he melted down. Threw four interceptions and pretty much singlehandedly lost the game, which was on national television. Lost to Lamar Jackson, who was great in that game and went on to win his second MVP award.

Since Christmas night, Purdy has started five games including the one against the Ravens. And in this brief stretch, his completion percentage is 63.1, his touchdown percentage is 3.0, his interception percentage is 3.0, his yards per pass attempt is 7.5, his yards per completion is 11.9 and his passer rating is 83.4. That's a big drop-off across the board.

I'm not trying to argue that Purdy is a mirage or fool's gold -- he's a hell of a quarterback. But he's not as good as his numbers from last season suggest. He's not the best quarterback in 49ers franchise history. And his job will become increasingly difficult in the future.

As Purdy gets older, the book on him will become better and more sophisticated, he will become more expensive and, as a result, his supporting cast will get weaker. Which means his numbers could continue to fall even if his ability stays the same.