Canada vs. Spain Olympic Basketball Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Group A

A trip to the knockout stage could be on the line for Spain in Friday's matchup with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada.

Spain small forward Santi Aldama. / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Canadian men’s basketball team are rolling, going 2-0 through pool play ahead of their final matchup against Spain on Friday. 

With a win, Canada would clinch Group A, as it already has wins over Australia (1-1) and Greece (0-2). 

For Spain, it may need a win to advance to the knockout stage, especially if Australia ends up beating Greece in its pool play finale on Friday. 

Spain knocked off Greece on Tuesday, riding another big game from Santi Aldama (19 points, 12 rebounds) to hold off Giannis Antetokounmpo and company. 

Canada – one of the top contenders to medal this summer – is heavily favored in this game, but can Spain hang around? 

Here’s a look at the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for this Group A matchup on Friday. 

Canada vs. Spain Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Canada -9.5 (-108)
• Spain +9.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Canada: -455
• Spain: +350

Total

• 167.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Canada vs. Spain How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Aug. 2
• Time: 11:15 a.m. EST
• Venue: Pierre Mauroy Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Canada record: 2-0
• Spain record: 1-1

Canada vs. Spain Key Players to Watch

Canada

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: SGA just keeps on rolling. The Oklahoma City Thunder star shot a cool 8-for-10 from the field to score 16 points while adding four rebounds, three assists and three steals. He and RJ Barrett have been the top targets in the prop market when it comes to scoring the ball in the Olympics. 

Spain

Santi Aldama: If you’re looking for someone to bet in the prop market, it’s Aldama. The Memphis Grizzlies forward hit six 3-pointers and scored 27 points against Australia before his 19-point double-double against Greece. Spain only had four players in double figures against Greece, including veteran Rudy Fernandez. I expect Aldama to have another major workload against a Canadian team that isn’t as deep in the frontcourt as it is at guard. 

Canada vs. Spain Prediction and Pick

Canada has taken care of business in pool play, beating Greece by seven and Australia by 10, but it hasn’t looked dominant like we’ve seen Team USA and Germany look at points this Olympics. 

Asking the Canadians to win by 10 or more against a Spain team fighting to advance to the knockout stage is tough, especially since a Spain win coupled with an Australia win would set in place a three-way tie atop Group A.

I do think Canada ultimately wins this game, but Spain may be able to hang around after it beat Greece by the same margin as the Candadians on Tuesday. In addition to that, Canada’s weak point – the frontcourt – is where Spain has thrived, leaning heavily on Aldama and Willy Hernangomez. 

Canada also needed 18 turnovers from Australia to win by 10 points in that matchup, something that may be tough to replicate against a veteran Spain team. 

Plus, Spain is playing for everything, as a spot in the knockout stage is not guaranteed with a loss. I’ll take it to cover on Friday. 

Pick: Spain +9.5 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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