Swimming Medal Predictions: Team USA Faces Tough Test at Paris Olympics

Will the U.S. continue its dominance, or will the emerging stars from the rest of the world finally catch up and top the medal count?

Katie Ledecky will be among the usually dominant Americans to be challenged by international stars in Paris. / Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Alarm bells have been ringing around USA Swimming for a year now, since Australia won 13 gold medals to America’s seven at the 2023 World Championships. Was this a sign of star-spangled decline, a sign of an international surge, or a correctable blip?

Perhaps all of the above. For the first time since 1945, no U.S. swimmer set a world record in 2023 in either long-course or short-course meters. Meanwhile, 17 world records were taken down, which is an indication of the world collectively getting faster.

But if you want to know who to bet on to top the medal count at the Summer Olympics in Paris—in both gold medals and total medals—America is still the smart choice. The top individual stars may hail from elsewhere, but the overall depth of talent still skews red, white and blue. 

Here’s how I see every Olympic race breaking down:

Men’s 50-meter freestyle

Gold: Cameron McEvoy, Australia
Silver: Ben Proud, Great Britain
Bronze: Caeleb Dressel, United States

Men’s 100 freestyle 

Gold: David Popovici, Romania
Silver: Pan Zhanle, China
Bronze: Jack Alexy, United States

Men’s 200 freestyle 

Gold: David Popovici, Romania
Silver: Lukas Martens, Germany
Bronze: Luke Hobson, United States 

Men’s 400 freestyle 

Gold: Lukas Martens, Germany
Silver: Sam Short, Australia
Bronze: Kim Woo-min, South Korea 

Men’s 800 freestyle 

Gold: Elijah Winnington, Australia
Silver: Bobby Finke, United States
Bronze: Sam Short, Australia

Finke, a two-time gold medalist in Tokyo, is poised for another double finish in the medals in Paris. / Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

Men’s 1,500 freestyle 

Gold: Bobby Finke, United States
Silver: Daniel Wiffen, Ireland
Bronze: Florian Wellbrock, Germany 

Men’s 100 backstroke 

Gold: Thomas Ceccon, Italy
Silver: Ryan Murphy, United States
Bronze: Xu Jiayu, China

Men’s 200 backstroke 

Gold: Ryan Murphy, United States
Silver: Hugo Gonzalez, Spain
Bronze: Hubert Kos, Hungary 

Men’s 100 breastroke 

Gold: Adam Peaty, Great Britain
Silver: Qin Haiyang, China
Bronze: Nic Fink, United States

Men’s 200 breastroke 

Gold: Qin Haiyang, China
Silver: Leon Marchand, France
Bronze: Ippei Watanabe, Japan 

Men’s 100 butterfly 

Gold: Caeleb Dressel, United States
Silver: Josh Liendo, Canada
Bronze: Noe Ponti, Switzerland

Men’s 200 butterfly 

Gold: Kristof Milak, Hungary
Silver: Leon Marchand, France
Bronze: Ilya Kharun, Canada 

Marchand is well-positioned to burst onto the scene at these Games with a wide-ranging, hefty slate of events. / Diannie Chavez/The Republic / USA TODAY

Men’s 200 individual medley 

Gold: Leon Marchand, France
Silver: Wang Shun, China
Bronze: Carson Foster, United States

Men’s 400 individual medley 

Gold: Leon Marchand, France
Silver: Carson Foster, United States
Bronze: Chase Kalisz, United States

Men’s 400 freestyle relay 

Gold: United States
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: China

Men’s 800 freestyle relay 

Gold: Great Britain
Silver: United States
Bronze: Australia 

Men’s 400 medley relay 

Gold: United States
Silver: China
Bronze: Great Britain

Women’s 50 freestyle 

Gold: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
Silver: Kasia Wasick, Poland
Bronze: Shayna Jack, Australia

Women’s 100 freestyle 

Gold: Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia
Silver: Siobhan Haughey, Hong Kong
Bronze: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden 

Women’s 200 freestyle 

Gold: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Silver: Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia
Bronze: Siobhan Haughey, Hong Kong 

Titmus is seeking a clean sweep in the mid-distance freestyle events after besting Ledecky in the 400-meter free in Tokyo. / Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Sports

Women’s 400 freestyle 

Gold: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Silver: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Bronze: Katie Ledecky, United States

Women’s 800 freestyle 

Gold: Katie Ledecky, United States
Silver: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Bronze: Simona Quadarella, Italy 

Women’s 1,500 freestyle 

Gold: Katie Ledecky, United States
Silver: Simona Quadarella, Italy
Bronze: Isabel Gose, Germany 

Women’s 100 backstroke 

Gold: Regan Smith, United States
Silver: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Bronze: Katharine Berkoff, United States

Women’s 200 backstroke 

Gold: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Silver: Regan Smith, United States
Bronze: Phoebe Bacon, United States

Women’s 100 breastroke 

Gold: Tang Qianting, China
Silver: Lilly King, United States
Bronze: Benedetta Pilato, Italy 

Women’s 200 breastroke 

Gold: Kate Douglass, United States
Silver: Tatjana Smith, South Africa
Bronze: Tes Schouten, Netherlands

Women’s 100 butterfly 

Gold: Gretchen Walsh, United States
Silver: Torri Huske, United States
Bronze: Zhang Yufei, China

Women’s 200 butterfly 

Gold: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Silver: Regan Smith, United States
Bronze: Zhang Yufei, China

Douglass and teammate Alex Walsh face a star-studded field in the 200-meter individual medley. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY

Women’s 200 individual medley 

Gold: Kate Douglass, United States
Silver: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Bronze: Summer McIntosh, Canada

Women’s 400 individual medley 

Gold: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Silver: Katie Grimes, United States
Bronze: Anastasia Gorbenko, Israel

Women’s 400 freestyle relay 

Gold: Australia
Silver: United States
Bronze: China

Women’s 800 freestyle relay 

Gold: Australia
Silver: United States
Bronze: China 

Women’s 400 medley relay 

Gold: United States
Silver: Australia
Bronze: China

Mixed medley relay 

Gold: United States
Silver: Australia
Bronze: China 

Medal Count

United States: 13 gold, 11 silver, 9 bronze
Australia: 8 gold, 7 silver, 3 bronze
China: 2 gold, 4 silver, 8 bronze
Canada: 2 gold, 2 silver, 2 bronze
Great Britain: 2 gold, 2 silver, 1 bronze
France: 2 gold, 2 silver, 0 bronze
Romania: 2 gold, 0 silver, 0 bronze
Italy: 1 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze
Germany: 1 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze
Hungary: 1 gold,  0 silver, 1 bronze
Sweden: 1 gold, 0 silver, 1 bronze 
Hong Kong: 0 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze
Poland: 0 gold, 1 silver, 0 bronze
Ireland: 0 gold, 1 silver, 0 bronze
Spain: 0 gold, 1 silver, 0 bronze
Netherlands: 0 gold, 0 silver, 1 bronze
South Korea: 0 gold, 0 silver, 1 bronze
Japan: 0 gold, 0 silver, 1 bronze
Israel: 0 gold, 0 silver, 1 bronze