Is An NHL Lockout Looming?

Is a work stoppage possible for the NHL when their collective bargaining agreement ends?

Jacob Punturi | Aug 28, 2024

Jun 28, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman welcomes fans to the 2024 NHL Draft at The Sphere. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

The NHL doesn't have the best track record when it comes to collective bargaining agreement negotiations. Under current commissioner Gary Bettman, the league's endured three separate work stoppages while the league and the NHL Player's Association (NHLPA) battle it out in mediation.

The current CBA expires following the 2025-2026 season, and the NHL is crossing its fingers to avoid a fourth lockout of the last 30 years. But there is a trend occurring that, if this continues, might indicate the NHL's players anticipate a shortened season is coming when the CBA ends.

TSN Hockey writer Travis Yost recently pointed out a growing number of contracts include guaranteed signing bonus money. According to data he pulled and recorded, over 80% of the contracts signed in 2024 contaned a signing bonus.

Now, signing bonuses serve a variety of purposes for both the player and the organization signing the contract. For the team offering the deal, signing bonuses can help reduce average salary and subsequently reduce the impact of a potential contract buy out down the line. For the player, it guarantees them a set amount of money year in and out on a set date outside of their salary. It also guarantees that a player is paid if games aren't played. Yost also points this out in his recent article.

"Contracts loaded with signing bonuses offer one other element," he wrote. "They can be lockout proof. Since signing bonuses are typically paid in the off-season during the summer months, they precede whatever impact a CBA stalemate may have on the approaching regular season. If a regular season is disrupted without a contract in place, player salaries are effectively frozen."

If Yost's hypothesis is true, then this rise in signing bonus money isn't a coincidence. Players and their representation believe the upcoming CBA negotiations could extend into the regular season and cost them games, and subsequently, their salaries.

Having money to sustain themselves in the event of a work stoppage is huge when it comes to the player's negotiating leverage. The last lockout, which came during the 2012-2013 season, carried over into the new year and shortened the regular season to just 48 games. If the majority of the NHLPA's financially solid, it means they can prolong the lockout and hopefully force the league into more concessions while negotiating.

This could also be Yost reading too much into a rising occurrence in the league. With the salary cap limits rising at a glacially slow pace, signing bonuses will continue to be a tool utilized by organizations as they assemble their teams. It will also continue to be something the players push for in their contract negotiations between now and the end of the 2025-2026 season, as a potential fight brews behind the scenes.

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Published Aug 28, 2024

JACOB PUNTURI