Three NHL Players Poised to Regress in 2024

Several NHL players are poised to regress in 2024.

Jacob Punturi | Jul 14, 2024

Apr 11, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Detroit Red Wings left wing Lucas Raymond (23) celebrates with the Detroit bench after Raymond scored a goal to complete a hat-trick against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the third period at PPG Paints Arena. Pittsburgh won 6-5 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

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Last season featured breakout campaigns from multiple NHL players. Across every position, there were players taking the next step in their development and impressing. The biggest question facing these players is if they can repeat their career seasons in 2024 and beyond. For these three players, it's likely they won't be able to find the same success they did in 2023.

Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers

Reinhart is a tough one to judge. His 2023 was a classic example of a contract year boom, as he recorded a career high in goals (57) and points (94) in the final year of his deal. He earned an eight-year extension worth $69 million, keeping him with the Panthers through the 2031-2032 season.

Reinhart has also taken his game to the next level since arriving in Florida. He has two 80+ point seasons and three straight 30+ goal seasons with the Panthers. He's a pivotal player and will continue to get the ice-time and opportunities to pick up huge numbers.

Ultimately, he's probably not a 50-goal scorer for the next eight seasons. He's closer to a 30-goal and 65-point player who will remain a top-six contributor than a 100-point scorer.

Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers

Evan Bouchard balled out in 2023. He double his production from the season prior, finishing with 18 goals and 82 points in 81 games. Playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is a boost for everyone on the Oilers, but what does that mean for Bouchard?

At 24 years old, Bouchard is just hitting his potential as an NHL defenseman. It would be easy to see his 2023 production and project him as a point-per-game defender for the next few years. He has the skills to do that, but there were two key statistics in 2023 that may not be replicated in 2024.

The first is his power play production. The Oilers had perhaps the greatest power play ever last season and everybody on those units benefitted. Bouchard recorded eight goals and 35 points on the man advantage. The Oilers are sure to be dominant on the power play again this upcoming season, but 35 power play points are a large order for the team's top defender.

The other spike Bouchard sw in 2023 was his shooting percentage. In his first two and a half seasons in the NHL, it consistently hovered around 5%. This past season, that number shot up to nearly 8.5%. It could be the progression of Bouchard's skill and vision on the ice that resulted in this increase, but it could also be a result of playing on one of the best offensive teams in the NHL's Salary Cap Era.

Lucas Raymond, Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings are high on Lucas Raymond and are depending on him to keep improving his game in 2024. He's a playmaking top-six forward with two 20+ goal and 50+ point seasons to begin his NHL career. In 2023, he jumped from 23 to 31 goals and 57 to 72 points.

Raymond is due for a regression in 2024. The Red Wings have a solid group of forwards that improved in the offseason. He could see his ice-time eaten up by the veteran duo of Patrick Kane or Vlad Tarasenko.

The real issue, like Bouchard, is Raymond's shooting percentage skyrocketed last season. In his first two seasons, he had 12% success rate shooting the puck. In 2023, 19% of his shots on goal went in. That's nearly one in every five shots finding the back of the net. Raymond is a quality player and still improving, but don't count on him to record 70 points or more in 2024.

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Published Jul 14, 2024

JACOB PUNTURI