Three Players Who Benefit Most From NHL Salary Arbitration

14 NHL players elected to take their contract negotiations to arbitration, but who will benefit most from it?

Apr 9, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Buffalo Sabres goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1) makes a glove save against the Dallas Stars during the second period at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The NHL offseason is reaching a bit of a lull. The big spending that opened free agency dwindled as rosters filled out. Most teams made their big moves, leaving just some loose ends to tie up.

One of those loose ends is the 14 restricted free agents who elected salary arbitration. When players and their teams are far apart in negotiations, salary arbitration is a useful resolution. If these teams and players don't come to terms in the next few weeks, their contracts will be decided by an independent arbitrator.

Salary arbitration is a risky move for both sides. The players risk receiving a lower salary than they have been negotiating for while the organizations risk paying more than they anticipated or were willing to spend. Most of these cases will end up somewhere in the middle, but which players will benefit the most if they get to arbitration?

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - Buffalo Sabres

The Buffalo Sabres showed they are willing to be aggressive with their recent trades, so, oddly, they haven't come to terms with goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. He emerged as the team's number-one goaltender in 2023. He appeared in 51 games and recorded an impressive 2.57 goals against average backstopping a porous Buffalo defense.

If the Sabres want to compete in the Atlantic Division, they need Luukkonen locked in as their goalie. He made less than $1 million annually with his last contract, but he played like a $4 to $5 million goaltender in 2023 and is still improving.

The arbitration process will likely double or triple his salary. In 2023 both goaltenders with arbitration cases were awarded $3.5 million or more. Whatever the decision, the Sabres will owe their top goaltender a significant pay raise in 2024.

Martin Necas - Carolina Hurricanes

Martin Necas may not start the 2024 season with his current team. The trade chatter is relentless with Necas, and the Hurricanes' lack of salary cap space is a difficult obstacle.

In the meantime, the two sides could go to arbitration to figure out his salary in 2024. He just completed a two-year contract that paid him $3 million per season. He out-performed that deal by a wide margin, recording 71 and 53 points in the past two seasons.

Necas wants to be paid like a first-line player, and the Canes simply cannot afford that. Arbitration could force the Hurricanes' hand. If the salary is too high, they will have to trade him somewhere that can afford him and most likely has the opportunity Necas is searching for. If negotiations drag on, arbitration will likely grant Necas a sizeable raise.

Kirill Marchenko - Columbus Blue Jackets

Kirill Marchenko recorded back-to-back 20-goal seasons with the Blue Jackets. That alone is reason enough for a huge pay raise. He just completed a deal with a cap hit of $925,000, so it's safe to assume he is seeking at least $4 million per year in his next deal.

The number the Blue Jackets want to get to is unknown, but they can afford whatever salary is awarded to Marchenko. History suggests the process will benefit Marchenko.

The most similar case was in 2021 when the Detroit Red Wings and Tyler Bertuzzi went to arbitration. Bertuzzi had scored 20 goals or more in two straight seasons and was awarded a one-year deal worth $3.5 million.

The Blue Jackets are desperate for offensive firepower and if they want to keep one of their best and youngest goal-scorers they should consider finalizing a deal with Marchenko. Otherwise, arbitration could award him a contract with an average annual value the team can't stomach.

It will be interesting to see how many, if any, of the 14 players who elected salary arbitration get there. It's far more common for a contract to get done quickly once a player elects arbitration. For Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Kirill Marchenko, and Martin Necas, they should let this stretch until their arbitration dates. With their performances in 2023 and their ages, they could all be in line for significant boosts in pay.

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