Lightning Goalie Explains Drop in NHL Save Percentage

The Tampa Bay Lightning's franchise goaltender has some thoughts on the rise in scoring across the league.

Dec 12, 2024; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) during the second period against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images / Sergei Belski-Imagn Images

There's undeniably an abundance of goaltending talent across the NHL today, but despite that, save percentage continues to drop league-wide.

Save percentage peaked at .915 in 2014-15 and 2015-16, but has steadily declined since then, reaching .903 last season. That's the lowest since 2005-06, which came immediately after the lockout led to smaller goalie equipment and more rules to limit defensive interference.

There are several factors that have led to this decline, but for Tampa Bay Lightning star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, one immediately stands out.

“I feel like guys don't waste shots anymore,” Vasilevskiy told NHL.com. “You know, back when I came into the League (in 2014-15), it used to be 30 or 35-plus shots each game. It was almost every night, you felt good about your game, you were into it all the time. Nowadays, guys don't waste shots. It's all about the quality. They're all looking for that perfect play, perfect pass, perfect shot.”

It is true that shot counts have declined as well. Before Thursday's games, there were an average of 57.4 shots per game this season, down from 60.6 last season and 63.3 in 2021-22 (the most in the past five seasons). NHL EDGE data also shows that the average number of long-range shots, which goalies have a .970 save percentage against, have dropped from 14.9 in 2021-22 to 12.81 this season.

There has been an influx of young scoring talent over the past few seasons, and those players are clearly choosing their shots more carefully.

“In my opinion it's all those young players, they're super-skilled and they know if you shoot at net with no traffic the goalie will catch it and then what?” Vasilevskiy said. “Whistle, the play is dead, and nobody will pat you in the back for that.”

It makes sense that less shots from the point and more high-danger chances would negatively impact goaltenders. Additionally, Vasilevskiy is not the only goaltender to feel this way.

“That's definitely a very interesting outlook and I have to agree with it,” St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binnington said. “It's just no wasted shots. That’s the new age mindset. A lot of our team meetings are just about how to score, finding ways to score, rather than getting just pucks to the net.”

Furthermore, fewer shots also have an impact on the goaltender's mental game, and staying sharp is key for any goalie.

“You stay in the blue paint waiting for something to happen and you have lots of energy and thoughts, and that's not a perfect scenario,” Vasilevskiy said. “When you don't have shots, you are thinking about how you’re going to play instead of playing the game but when you have a lot of shots, you don't think, you just play, so obviously that’s much easier.”

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