2025 Fantasy Baseball: Aaron Nola Profile, Preview, Predictions
The fantasy ride of Aaron Nola brings many aces days. Unfortunately, his many off nights crush his ceiling in ERA and WHIP. On the positive side, he takes the ball every fifth ball, creating depth in his innings and potential upside in wins and strikeouts.
Aaron Nola's 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/w7t3U9ABA3
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 8, 2024
SP – Aaron Nola, PHI (ADP – 88.8)
Nola hasn’t missed a start since 2017. When at his best in 2018, he delivered his only foundation ace season (17-6 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 224 strikeouts over 212.1 innings). Since his best year, the high-stakes fantasy market has treated him as an SP2 at a minimum due to his expected value in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. Unfortunately, he had too many off days over the past few seasons, diminishing his stretches of stardom on the mound. Over the past three years, he ranked 12th (5.16), 30th (0.87), and 19th (2.37) for starting pitchers by FPGscore while being drafted close to a top 12 ace each season.
In 2024, Nola allowed two runs or fewer in 20 of his 33 starts. Batters knocked him out before finishing the fifth inning in five starts, leading to 26 runs, 52 baserunners, and seven home runs over 21.0 innings with 21 strikeouts. He had a 2.93 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 23 home runs, and 176 strikeouts over his other 178.1 innings. Nola had similar failures over 11 starts in 2023 (52 runs, 85 baserunners, and 14 home runs over 64.2 innings).
His arm no longer had an edge against right-handed batters (.259 BAA), and home runs have been a problem in back-to-back seasons (30 and 32 – 1.4 per nine). Nola had regression in his strikeouts per nine innings (12.1, 11.1, 10.3, 9.4, and 8.9) for the fourth consecutive year while giving back some of his advantage with his walk rate (2.3 – 1.3 in 2022 and 2.1 in 2023).
Nola throws his curveball (.223 BAA) as his top usage pitch (33.0%) while mixing in a four-seamer (27.5%) and sinker (21.0%) to keep batters off balance. Depending on the batting side of a hitter, he’ll also feature a cutter and changeup. Unfortunately, his rising fastball (.172 BAA) was his only pitch of value in 2024. Right-handed batters drilled his cutter (.394 BAA) and sinker (.333 BAA). On the positive side, Nola did a better job keeping the ball down (fly-ball rate – 33.9) last season.
Fantasy Outlook: This draft season, Nola's price point is much more attractive, considering his direction and recent results. He tends to be on his game for two-thirds of his starts, making it challenging to time his down days. A change in pitch mix to right-handed batters could correct his recent demise against them. His fading strikeout rate suggests less life on his pitches in the strike zone. A drafter looking at his arm must decide if their team needs more upside in this area of the draft or a steady, proven arm to pair with their first ace selected. I’ll treat Nola this way: if he falls in drafts and presents himself as a value SP3, I can’t dismiss his possible help to my fantasy team by taking the mound every fifth day.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.