2025 Fantasy Baseball: Kansas City Royals Closer Depth Chart
After a career season in ERA and WHIP, the Royals took a flier on Carlos Estevez to close games in 2025. His previous command issues suggest repeatability may be an issue.
Carlos Estévez, Heaters. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/jaXG8YajTV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 16, 2024
CL – Carlos Estevez, KC (ADP – 172.2)
Estevez saved 31 games in 2023, but his WHIP (1.492) and high walk rate (4.5) suggested a setup role for the Angels last season. Somehow, he found the foundation of command, leading to a career-best 2.0 walks per nine innings (1.3 with Los Angeles). His ERA (2.45) and WHIP (0.909) were the best of his career. Over the past three seasons, Estevez went 13-14 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, and 182 strikeouts over 174.1 innings while converting 59 of 72 save tries.
He opened 2024 with questionable stats over his first 16.0 innings (nine runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs with 17 strikeouts and seven saves). Estevez proceeded to pitch 20.0 impressive shutout innings (three hits, two walks, and 16 strikeouts) with a win and 13 saves. He secured six of his eight save chances over the final two months with the Phillies (2.84 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts over 19.0 innings).
His average fastball (97.0) continues to have an edge in velocity. Estevez worked with a similar pitch mix – four-seamer (.201 BAA), slider (.180 BAA), and low-volume changeup (.143 BAA – only thrown to lefties). As exciting as his growth was last season, here’s a look at how those offerings worked in 2023:
Fantasy Outlook: The difference between 2023 and 2024 was 2.5 walks per nine, which resulted in a massive swing in his WHIP (1.492 to 0.909). The Royals signed his Estevez for two seasons ($20.2 million) in late January. There are enough cracks in his career path to suggest he walks more batters this year, inviting another Royals option to steal some saves.
Lucas Erceg's 3Ks in the 8th. pic.twitter.com/45uNjAqZvv
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 6, 2024
Top Royals Handcuff – Lucas Erceg, KC (ADP – 211.6)
After one year of success in his pro career in 2024 (3.36 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 72 strikeouts, and 14 saves over 61.2 innings), some of the fantasy market had its sights on Erceg as a value closing option this year. Once Kansas City signed Carlos Estevez, his ADP slipped down draft boards.
The reality of repeatedly looking at player’s stat lines is that mediocre players lack consistency. Erceg went on this path in ERA: 5.29 in 2021, 4.55 in 2022, 6.46 in 2023 at AAA, and 5.75 in the majors. Suddenly, at age 29, he was a player to fight for in drafts until his closing leg was kicked out from him.
Last year, Erceg pitched well in April (1.42 ERA and 1.026 WHIP over 12.2 innings), but he was a below-par arm over the following three months (4.68 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts over 25.0 innings), with a stint in the injured list in late May (forearm issue). Erceg threw more strikes (three walks over 25.0 innings) with the Royals, resulting in a successful closing opportunity (2.88 ERA, 0.840 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts over 25.0 innings with 11 saves and two blown saves).
His average fastball (98.9) has plenty of zip. Erceg worked off a four-seamer (.247 BAA), slider (.227 BAA), sinker (.235 BAA), and changeup (.121 BAA). In 2024, he has 12 walks and 41 strikeouts off his two fastballs, compared to 26 walks and 38 strikeouts in 2023.
Fantasy Outlook: Erceg's end of last season suggests that he unlocked the keys to his command, giving him a closing arm. The next step in his development is repeating and executing that thought process this year. Even with success last season, his forearm issue can’t be dismissed as a future elbow injury. Ride him while he’s hot type-player, but get off the bus if his command doesn’t arrive in 2025.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.