Fantasy Baseball: Breakout Pitcher of the Year and Sleeper Pitchers
In fantasy baseball, you can never have enough starting pitchers. The high number of injuries can turn a winning pitching staff into a cellar dweller in the blink of an eye.
Sleeper: Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Pfaadt looks poised to be a much better arm in his third year in the majors. His 2024 resume is loaded with disaster starts, with hints of greatness. His command is ace-ready, but he must locate his pitches better within the strike zone and solve left-handed batters. Next Step: a sub-3.50 ERA with a push toward 15 wins and 200+ strikeouts. Giddy Up!
Breakout: Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
The fun and excitement with Baz starts in 2025. He looks poised to give Tampa and fantasy teams meaningful innings, putting him on a path to post a sub-3.00 ERA and 175+ strikeouts with about 160.0 innings pitched.
Breakout: Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
For 15 starts in 2024, Bradley delivered foundation ace stats. His next step is cleaning up his disaster outings and improving his success against left-handed batters (.252 BAA). He has the fastball to control the top of the strike zone and change a batter's eye with his developing elite split-finger pitch. On the verge of ace status with slightly better command and fewer mistakes leaving the park. Next step: a sub 3.25 ERA and 200+ strikeouts if given 30 starts. Don’t sleep at the wheel and try to finesse him.
Value Ace: Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Unfortunately, the only conclusion for his demise and injury was an increased workload from 2020 to 2022 (42.0, 205.2, and 228.2 innings). Alcantara will have 18 months of recovery when lights go on for the regular season in early April. The Marlins have a team option for him for 2027, so there is a chance he gets traded midseason.
When at his best, Alcantara threw hard with command while working off four competitive pitches. If his walk rate is intact this spring with velocity, I expect him to pitch at least 180.0 innings this year with success. An SP4 with length to his starts should be an advantage. He was not quite a lock in early February, but his profile and value should rise in spring training (5.2 shutout innings with five baserunners and five strikeouts over three games). The reports on his fastball (98.7 mph) have been electrifying.
Breakout Pitcher of the Year: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Brown came into last draft season with potential breakout upside, and he reached that plateau on some levels. When the lights came on for 2024, he buried fantasy teams in ERA (9.78) and WHIP (2.217) by the end of April due to three poor outings (20 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over nine innings).
For the remainder of the season, Brown delivered ace stats (11-5 with a 2.51 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts over 147.0 innings). He did have two other disaster showings (12 runs, 22 baserunners, and two home runs over 11.0 innings with 13 strikeouts) over this span.
Hidden in his pitch mix was growth vs. righties over the final five months while showcasing a dominating profile against left-handed batters. Brown’s ticket to stardom starts with better location in and out of the strike zone against righties. He is on the verge of a sub-3.00 ERA with 15 wins and 225 strikeouts, plus some growth in his WHIP. Player to fight for in 2025.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.