Fantasy Baseball: Top Three Starting Pitchers Busts

These starting pitchers are worth significant draft capital but could end up tanking your fantasy baseball season in 2025.

New York Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodon (55) pitches in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game two of the 2024 MLB World Series at Dodger Stadium. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

It's difficult to identify busts in the fantasy baseball world but these starting pitchers have major concerns heading into the 2025 MLB season. Pitchers coming off injuries tend to underperform so let's take a look at the top three starting pitcher fades for the upcoming campaign.

SP Michael King, San Diego Padres

Coming into last season, fantasy drafters had to answer the fact or fiction about the viability of his right arm. After stumbling out of the gate in April (5.00 ERA, 1.583 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 36.0 innings with 40 strikeouts), he proved to be a true story over his final 24 starts (2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, and 161 strikeouts over 137.2 innings). King served up only seven home runs over this hot run. The Padres handed him the ball twice in the postseason (2-0 with an electric start vs. the Braves ~ seven shutout innings with 12 strikeouts).

King's arsenal paints a winning picture for 2025. He is another pitcher this season with a significant jump in innings (81.0) that may lead to lingering wear this year. With a new contract (free agent) on the horizon, the Padres will try to squeeze another year out of his right arm. I suspect his previous elbow issue may enter into the equation this year, so buyer beware.

SP Max Fried, New York Yankees

After pitching well in April (2-0 with a 0.45 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, .203 BAA, and 18 strikeouts over 20.0 innings) in 2023, Fried struggled in his first start in May (five runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over 6.0 innings). A forearm strain led to three months on the injured list. His arm held value over his final nine starts (2.79 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 51.2 innings), but he battled a blister on his pitching hand in late September. Fried struggled in his only playoff appearance (three runs and seven baserunners over 4.0 innings).

New York Yankees pitcher Max Fried (54) participates in spring training workouts at George M. Steinbrenner Field. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Yankees locked Fried up for $218 million over eight years in early December. He has been a winning pitcher over the past seven seasons (71-31 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, and 797 strikeouts over 824.2 innings). His left arm checks many winning boxes, making it easy to dismiss his two forearm issues over the past two seasons. I suspect a UCL tear in his left elbow will emerge in the near future. His first sign of demise will be a rise in home runs and a drop in strikeouts. Based on this, the hints to avoid aren’t glowing on the surface of his profile.

SP Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

Rodon parlayed two great seasons in 2021 and 2022 (27-13 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.998 WHIP, and 422 strikeouts over 310.2 innings) into a six-year deal with the Yankees for $162 million.

Ultimately, Rodon can’t reach elite SP1 status without locating his fastball better in the strike zone. He brings value in strikeouts with reasonable command. His desire to elevate his pitches over the past two seasons led to a high fly ball rate (49.4) and struggles with home runs. His coin flip is between an underachiever and a potential underlying injury. I don’t see enough light in his profile to reel me in 2025.

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