Houston Astros Fantasy Baseball Studs, Breakouts, and Sleepers
The Astros roster is in semi-rebuild mode, but they continue to have a couple of foundation players, along with potential breakout and sleeper options on the team.
Deep Sleeper: Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros
This draft season, the fantasy market will be drawn to his growth over the second half of 2024, highlighted by four double-digit strikeout games (10, 12, 13, and 11). His success starts with getting ahead in the count, allowing him to take advantage of his swing-and-miss curveball and slider (87 combined K’s last year).
I understand the temptation, but there will be many down days and bad innings when Arrighetti battles walks and home runs. If his fastball improves this spring, the top of the strike zone will be easier to control with high heat. I see WHIP risk while understanding that he will be better in 2025.
Deep Sleeper: Cam Smith, Houston Astros
The Cubs drafted Cam Smith 14th overall in the 2024 MLB June Amateur Draft and quickly shipped him to Houston in the deal for Kyle Tucker. His bat showed growth in his final season at Florida State (.387/82/16/57/4 over 269 at-bats), raising his draft value. Over his 32 games last year between A, High A, and AA, Smith handled himself well (.313 over 20 runs, seven home runs, 24 RBIs, and two stolen bases over 115 at-bats).
He looks poised to start the season at AAA, but his swing has been talking a big game in spring training (9-for-22 with five runs, two home runs, and seven RBIs). The Astros have been giving him experience in right field in March to increase his chances of helping Houston in 2025. At the very least, Smith is a player to follow this year.
Sleeper: Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros
Pena performed better in fantasy stats based on his FPGscore (1.08 – 52nd) for hitters than his underlying metrics. In the early draft season, he is the 95th batter selected based on his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, making him a value if Pena repeated his 2024 season. He must improve with runners on base and add more loft to his swing path to reach a higher ceiling in home runs and RBIs.
Houston gave him most of his at-bats between fourth and sixth in the batting order. Pena isn’t far off from being a 20/20 player in perception (surface stats), and his counting stats are helped by being in the lineup on most nights. He also has room for improvement in batting average.
Breakout Pitcher of the Year: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Brown came into last draft season with potential breakout upside, and he reached that plateau on some levels. When the lights came on for 2024, he buried fantasy teams in ERA (9.78) and WHIP (2.217) by the end of April due to three poor outings (20 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over nine innings).
For the remainder of the season, Brown delivered ace stats (11-5 with a 2.51 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts over 147.0 innings). He did have two other disaster showings (12 runs, 22 baserunners, and two home runs over 11.0 innings with 13 strikeouts) over this span.
Hidden in his pitch mix was growth vs. righties over the final five months while showcasing a dominating profile against left-handed batters. Brown’s ticket to stardom starts with better location in and out of the strike zone against righties. He is on the verge of a sub-3.00 ERA with 15 wins and 225 strikeouts, plus some growth in his WHIP. Player to fight for in 2025.
Foundation Stud: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
The Astros want to keep Alvarez in their lineup for more games, so they will limit his playing time in the outfield in 2025. His foundation skill set is tremendous, giving him an edge in power and batting average. He finished 15th in FPGscore (5.34) for hitters in 2024 while underperforming in runs and RBIs for his improved opportunity.
Houston has him locked up for four more seasons. I love his floor in batting average and his potential to smash 50 home runs, but Alvarez must avoid the injured list to post difference-maker stats. With a second-round ADP in 2025, he will be a gift for some team structures.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.