New York Mets Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Studs, and Busts
The Mets should have a fun offensive team this season, but they can't compete in the NL East without better-starting pitching.
Sleeper: Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets
On the surface. Alvarez doesn’t look primed to break out in 2025, but I believe he has the talent to surprise. His approach is much better than Cal Raleigh and Shea Langeliers, and his contact batting average over his career path supports 30+ home runs with over 500 at-bats. I expect growth in his walk rate, helping his ability to score runs.
The Mets’ 2025 season opens on March 27, just 17 days after Alvarez’s hand surgery. If his recovery mirrors Matt Olson’s 2019 recovery timeline, Alvarez could rejoin the Mets’ lineup by April 23, missing 16 games but likely about 13 starts. At the latest, he should be back by the third week of April.
Francisco Alvarez talks about when he expects to return:
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 12, 2025
"It's on me. If my body takes more time than normal, maybe 8 weeks. If I feel comfortable and good, I can move quicker." pic.twitter.com/SyysvRD636
Based on my thought process, I expect Alvarez to be a strong buy at this new discounted fantasy price. At the very least, he should hit 20 home runs with help in runs and RBIs from the catcher position, even with only 450 at-bats.
Sleeper: Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
Nimmo has the approach to bat leadoff for New York in 2025, but the addition of Juan Soto changes the structure of the top of their lineup. The Mets have him locked up for the next six seasons, so they believe in his bat. I expect a rebound in batting average with an 80/20/70/5 outcome in his counting categories.
He missed time in spring training with a knee issue, creating a dip in his draft value. If the Mets hit him fourth in the batting order, Nimmo will have elite RBI chances.
Bust: Kodai Senga, New York Mets
Heading into 2023, I suspected a shoulder issue may developed him based on his history in Japan. His loss of command in the playoffs suggests he wasn’t healthy. With no surgery to rectify his issue, it makes sense to fade Senga again this season. Sometimes, players are motivated to show winning outcomes in spring training, which may be the case with him this year.
Unfortunately, his arm's ramp-up in intensity and extra effort on the mound may bring back his previous injury. He may surprise this year, but my risk-averse approach will keep me far away from him this draft season, especially at his current price point.
Value: Mark Vientos, New York Mets
His success last year in home runs drives his fantasy value this year. Vientos showed a better approach in the minors, suggesting improvement in his bat in 2025. He’s dead in the water in steals, and his runs can’t be impactful until moving higher in the batting order. Think of him as 2024 Eugenio Suarez, with better potential in his approach and less loft on his swing. Next step: 35 home runs with 75 runs and 85 RBIs.
Stud: Pete Alonso, New York Mets
In the early draft season, Alonso was discounted due to his unknown home in 2025. Last year, Alonso finished 38th in FPGscore (2.07) for batters. His mid-March ADP (45.6) in the NFBC prices him as the 33rd hitter drafted. I don’t view him as a lock to be a liability in batting average. I could see a .250/100/40/120/3 year. Hitting behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto should be an excellent production by Alonso this season.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.