Pittsbrugh Pirates Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Busts, and Breakouts
The Pirates have developing breakout starting pitchers, but their bullpen is a mess, and Pittsburgh lacks foundation corner infield power bats.
Deep Sleeper: Endy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates
In most redraft formats, Rodriguez will be found in the free-agent pool after missing 2204 with TJ surgery. The Pirates have a log jam at the catcher position, suggesting their future stud will see time at first base in 2025. He brings a switch-hitting bat with the ceiling of a middle-of-the-order opportunity in Pittsburgh's lineup.
in spring training, Rodriguez has shown an exceptional approach (nine walks and three strikeouts over 48 at-bats) while hitting .360 with 10 runs, one home run, and six RBIs. I veiw him as a cheat catching options, but he's not a lock to make Pittsburgh opening day roster.
Bust: Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
The recipe for success for Jones is pretty simple early in his career: get ahead in the count, allowing him to take advantage of his two-plus pitches (four-seamer/slider). Unfortunately, the lack of depth in his arsenal and inconsistency in command will lead to some disastrous outings. Temptation will lead drafters to expect more promising games in 2025. I expect WHIP risk out of the gate, and depth in games should hurt his value in wins. Exciting arm with value in strikeouts, but there will be some growing pains again this season.
His fade tag is tied to Jones picking up a sore right elbow in spring training. I've been avoiding him this draft season because I liked other starting pitchers around his ADPs. Possible TJ surgery is on the horizon. Anyone drafting Jones should look for Thomas Harrington as his possible replacement in the starting rotation.
Bust: David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
Based on the speed of his pitches, Bednar may have been overthrowing over the final two months, stalling the movement of the baseball in the strike zone. At the same time, failure forced him to press and lose confidence in his arsenal. His hard-hit rate (39.3) was below 2023 (39.9%), but Bednar gave up 16 barrels last year compared to nine the previous season.
His issue with home runs (nine over 57.2 innings) was tied to a career-high fly-ball rate (47.1). He must regain his lost command (4.4 walks per nine) to keep the closing job for the Pirates. Bednar is worth a dart, but I can’t guarantee his pitches will land in a winning area.
Spring training hasn't gone well for Bendar (eight runs and 13 baserunners over six innings with eight strikeouts. His fastball (96.8) has been reasonable based on his career path, and he may be working on something in March, leading to an uptick in hits allowed. Bendar must start pitching some clean innings to regain any fantasy draft momentum.
Breakout: Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
The coin flip for Cruz in 2025 is whether his trade of power for contact over the final two months of last season will translate to lower strikeouts this year and an uptick in home runs. Pittsburgh plans to switch him to centerfield, giving him dual eligibility. He’s getting better, but Cruz must settle into a favorable slot in the batting order to help his counting stats.
Last year, the Pirates gave him 65.6% of his at-bats between third and fourth in their lineup. Buy his 30/30 potential in power and speed while understanding his batting average risk if his approach moves in the wrong direction. On the downside, his ADP already reflects a more productive season.
Breakout Ace: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Skenes is the next big thing in fantasy baseball and a player worth fighting for in drafts. He is the first pitcher drafted in 2025, with a first-round ADP in the high-stakes market. The Pirates allowed him to throw 90+ pitches in 18 of his 23 starts in his rookie season, including 15 consecutive games. Skenes has a workhorse profile, with his natural progression pushing him over 190.0 innings this year.
I expect 15 wins and 240+ strikeouts with a massive edge in ERA and WHIP. If Pittsburgh can’t sign him to a long-term deal, they should push him hard early in his career. If his changeup improves, his ceiling in strikeouts will be much higher.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.