The Top 5 Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid in 2025

As we inch closer to the 2025 fantasy baseball season, it's critical to identify potential busts to steer clear of on draft day.

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) runs to first duirng the 1st inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. / Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

As the 2025 fantasy baseball season approaches, managers are gearing up for another year of draft preparation and roster building. However, amidst the excitement of selecting breakout stars, it's equally crucial to identify potential busts—players whose hype may not align with their expected production. 

Drafting these players could lead to disappointing returns, hindering your chances of success. Let’s explore the top five fantasy baseball busts to avoid, highlighting players who are primed for regression, face significant injury concerns, or simply lack the consistency needed to justify their high ADPs. By steering clear of these risky picks, you'll position your team for a stronger, more reliable foundation as you head into the 2025 season.

2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

At first glance, Altuve’s ability to deliver a 20/20 season with an above-average batting average may entice fantasy drafters in 2025. However, a deeper analysis reveals underlying concerns. His hard contact rate remains underwhelming, relying heavily on capitalizing on pitchers’ mistakes to bolster his home run totals. Additionally, a potential decline in stolen base opportunities could further diminish his overall fantasy value. A more realistic projection for the upcoming season is a 15/15 profile, supplemented by contributions in runs and batting average. Given these factors, Altuve falls into my bust category for 2025.

SS Willy Adames, San Francisco Giants

The Giants demonstrated their confidence in Adames' recent surge by signing him to a seven-year, $182 million contract in December. In 2024, he reached new career highs in runs scored (93), doubles (33), home runs (32), and stolen bases (21), buoyed by a career-best 610 at-bats. However, his increased speed appears to be an outlier relative to his six prior major league seasons. Notably, Adames benefitted from an elite RBI environment, stepping to the plate with 478 runners on base.

Willy Adames slugs his first @SFGiants #SpringTraining homer 🚀 pic.twitter.com/5uahAclaXo

— MLB (@MLB) March 5, 2025

His transition to Oracle Park presents notable challenges, including a likely dip in batting average and a potential regression in power output. While he remains committed to a power-driven approach, a projected drop of approximately 100 RBI opportunities could substantially impact his fantasy value. The Giants will likely slot him into a favorable spot in the lineup, but their stark contrast in team speed—Milwaukee ranked second in stolen bases last season (217), while San Francisco ranked 29th (68)—further limits his upside. A reasonable 2025 projection places him at a .240 batting average with 80 runs, 30 home runs, 85 RBIs, and five stolen bases, translating to a diminished FPGscore (he ranked 13th in 2024 with a 5.82). 

OF Victor Robles, Seattle Mariners

The early Steamer projections for Robles (.249/71/10/47/36 over 517 at-bats) appear overly optimistic given his career trajectory, and securing a full-time starting role seems uncertain. Robles lacks the plate discipline and approach required to consistently bat at the top of the lineup for an extended period. As such, he presents more risk than reward, making him a potential one-category player. His sole season with substantial at-bats (546) came in 2019, when he posted a .255 batting average with 86 runs, 17 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 28 stolen bases. Buyer beware…

OF Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox

When evaluating baseball players each season, the central question often revolves around progression versus regression. The trajectory a player is on plays a pivotal role in determining success within the fantasy market. Duran entered the 2024 season with 643 career at-bats over three years, posting a .258 batting average, 86 runs, 13 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 33 stolen bases, while striking out 27.7% of the time. However, he showed progress in 2023 by reducing his strikeout rate to 24.9%, indicating growing confidence at the plate at the major league level.

There were only three players in baseball last season to have 100+ R, 20+ HR, 70+ RBI, 30+ SB, and a .280+ AVG.

Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., and...

Jarren Duran pic.twitter.com/OF8jpzg1Kh

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) March 2, 2025

While I am generally cautious of players experiencing career seasons, particularly those well above their historical performance, Duran did demonstrate strong success at the Triple-A level (.266/103/28/80/36 over 564 at-bats), which may have signaled his potential heading into last season. At 28 years old, his window to capitalize on his major league career is relatively narrow. Did he enhance his chances in 2024? Statistically, yes, but with his free agency not looming until 2029, I’m skeptical. I’m fading him, as I doubt he will replicate his career-high at-bats, and I’m reluctant to invest in last year’s inflated numbers on draft day. Should he experience a downturn, will Boston continue to ride with him in 2025? I anticipate a 15% to 20% regression in his stats this year.

SP Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

Ultimately, Rodon cannot attain elite SP1 status without improving the command of his fastball within the strike zone. While he offers considerable value in strikeouts with respectable command, his tendency to elevate pitches over the past two seasons has resulted in a high fly-ball rate (49.4%) and subsequent struggles with home run prevention. His trajectory presents a dilemma—either an underachieving performance or a potential underlying injury issue. Given the lack of discernible upside in his profile, I am not inclined to invest in him for 2025.

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