2025 Fantasy Baseball: Austin Riley Profile, Preview, Predictions
Austin Riley crushes his 9th home run of the season to give the @Braves the lead! 💥 pic.twitter.com/NCW0JajkLP
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2024
After a down season by the Braves offense, Atlanta will push higher in runs scored, helped by the return of Ronald Acuna. Austin Riley offers elite power while also coming off a year with injuries. His lower ADP this year creates a buying opportunity in the 2025 draft season.
3B – Austin Riley, ATL (ADP – 34.2)
Riley was part of the Braves' offensive demise in 2024. He had an empty power swing over his first 167 at-bats (.228/24/3/18) while missing two weeks in May with a left side issue (inflammation). Over his next 258 at-bats, his bat returned to form, leading to a .275 batting average with 39 runs, 16 home runs, and 38 RBIs. Unfortunately, he missed the final six weeks of the season with a broken left hand after getting hit by a pitch.
His approach (strikeout rate – 25.2 and walk rate – 7.9) regressed slightly, along with a pullback in his contact batting average (.355 – .386 in 2023) and average hit rate (1.798). He finished 2024 with an elite exit velocity (93.3 – 10th) and hard-hit rate (53.4 – 12th) while seeing an uptick in his fly-ball rate (43.0 – 40.2 in 2023). Riley’s struggles in power over the first third of 2024 led to a sharp decline in his HR/FB rate (14.3 – 19.4 in 2023 and 19.5 in his career).
Before last season, Riley had over 400 RBI chances from 2021 to 2023 (435, 414, and 443). He was on pace for only 395 RBI opportunities in 2024. His RBI rate has ranked below the best-run producers over the past three years (13.8, 14.9, and 14.9). Riley had the best results in this area in 2021 (17.0% RBI rate).
Fantasy Outlook: With Ronald Acuna in the lineup, the Braves should regain their lost momentum in runs scored (704 – 14th ~ 243 runs fewer than 2023), giving Riley another chance to shine in runs, home runs, and RBIs. He has a 40+ home run swing with the approach to add some value to fantasy teams in batting average. The higher outputs in stolen bases lower his overall value compared to early four-category players with plus speed. I expect a bounce-back season, and Riley is on my radar if I pick at the back end of drafts and he makes it to the 3/4 turn.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.