2025 Fantasy Baseball: Baltimore Orioles Closer Depth Chart
After missing all of 2024 with his recovery from TJ surgery, the fantasy market is GASed up about Felix Bautista's return to the ninth inning for the Orioles.
Félix Bautista ⛽️⛽️⛽️ pic.twitter.com/WlOcqh1T9i
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 6, 2023
CL – Felix Bautista, BAL (ADP – 56.9)
In his first season in the majors, Bautista has more success than expected based on his slow path to the majors at age 26. He went 7-18 with a 3.23 ERA in the minors over seven seasons with 258 strikeouts over 222.2 innings.
Heading into 2022, Bautista had only 31.2 innings of experience between AA (13.1 – 0.68 ERA) and AAA (18.1 – 2.45 ERA). His command (5.1 walks per nine) held back his development and opportunities to close games (18 saves in the minors). With Baltimore, batters only hit .167 against him, thanks to an electric fastball (99.2 mph) and unhittable split-finger pitch (.086 BAA with 60 strikeouts and one walk over 93 at-bats). The Orioles handed him the closing job at the trade deadline, leading to 13 saves in 14 chances with a 3.24 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 25 innings.
The following season, he was the third most-valuable fantasy pitcher by FPGscore (7.00) after going 8-2 with a 1.48 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts over 61.0 innings. Bautista had six blown saves in his 39 chances. He developed a right elbow injury in late August, leading to TJ surgery on October 9th in 2023. Four months later, a second procedure was needed to clean his elbow, costing him the following season.
His sinker (.161 BAA) averaged 99.6 mph when last on a big league mound. Bautista dominated again with his split-finger fastball (.122 BAA with 51 strikeouts over 74 at-bats)
Fantasy Outlook: Based on his price point in early drafts, the high-stakes fantasy market expects him to hit the ground running in 2025. Baltimore stated in late January that Bautista would be eased into spring training while expecting him to be ready for opening day. His 18-month full recovery date is April 9th, just for reference.
I expect his velocity to be intact, but Bautista must regain his command to continue his success pre-injury. I’m waiting to see him on the mound in spring training before deciding on his draft ranking for this year. A combination of 100+ strikeouts and over 40 saves does have a winning ring to it.
Top Orioles Handcuff – Seranthony Dominguez, BAL
Dominquez missed five weeks midseason in 2023 with an oblique issue. He started the year with 5.2 poor innings (eight runs, 15 baserunners, and one home run). Over his following 19.0 innings, his arm trended toward finishing games (0.47 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts). Unfortunately, Dominguez lost his way over his final 28 appearances (12 runs, 33 baserunners, and six home runs over 25.1 innings).
2024 wasn’t a progression year for Dominguez. His season started with more failure than success with the Phillies (4.75 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts over 36.0 innings). After a trade to Baltimore, the Orioles handed him their closing role on August 10th. He converted 10 of his 11 save chances, but there were many down days over his final 18 appearances (5.17 ERA and 1.532 WHIP over 15.2 innings with 20 strikeouts) due to his struggles with home runs (5).
His average fastball (97.9) continued to have plenty of life. Dominguez succeeded with his four-seamer (.198 BAA) and slider (.178 BAA), but his sinker (.340 BAA) was a liability. Right-handed batters hit ten of his 12 home runs.
Fantasy Outlook: The backend of Baltimore has multiple arms in the mix of saves if Felix Bautista has a setback. Dominguez gets the “next-in-line” tag based on his saves for last year. His top two pitches and velocity should lead to more success. He pitched up in the strike zone (fly-ball rate – 47.5% - 37.0% in his career) last season but allowed too many home runs (12 over 58.2 innings). Dominguez will be found in the free-agent pool in most formats.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.