2025 Fantasy Baseball: Cincinnati Reds Closer Depth Chart
Alexis Diaz falls into last year's fantasy bum category, but hidden in his stats was 38.0 winning innings. Throwing strike one and pitching ahead in the count is the key to a rebound season.
Alexis Díaz's 3Ks in the 9th. pic.twitter.com/Pgp004YLv2
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 7, 2024
CL – Alexis Diaz, CIN (ADP – 154.2)
Diaz wasn’t as dominant in 2023 due to weakness in his first first-pitch strike rate (55) and no correction in his walk rate (4.8 – 4.7 in 2022). Batters only hit .186 against him with success vs. righties (.197) and lefties (.177). Over the first five months, Diaz had six wins and 35 saves over 57.2 innings with a 2.18 ERA and 78 strikeouts. He struggles in back-to-back games late in September (seven runs and eight baserunners over one inning), followed by five walks and one run over his final two innings.
Last year, finding home plate was a problem again for Diaz with his first-pitch strike rate (54%). He walked 5.0 batters per nine, with a sharp regression in his strikeout rate (8.8 – 11.5 in 2023). Batters drilled him in May (8.68 ERA and 1.929 WHIP) and August (7.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP). Over his other 38.0 innings, Diaz has a 2.13 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts with 19 saves.
His average fastball (94.1) was a three-year low. Diaz works off a four-seamer (.194 BAA) and slider (.214 BAA) combination of pitches. He induced many infield flies (18.6%) while pitching up in the strike zone (47.6% fly-ball rate).
Fantasy Outlook: Despite some regression in his fastball, Diaz has two challenging pitches to hit, even with too many pitches landing outside the strike zone. With 75 saves over the past three seasons, the Reds should give him a reasonable swing at rebounding this year. The bet here is on saves while hoping his command comes along for the ride. I view him as a value with a favorable price point.
Top Reds Handcuff – Tony Santillan, CIN
Health was an issue for Santillan in 2023, leading to a disaster campaign at AAA (7.88 ERA, 2.063 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts over 32.0 innings). He walked 7.9 batters per nine while allowing five home runs. His missed time came from back and hamstring injuries. The Reds released him in late August.
Last year, Santillan posted a better ERA (3.49) than WHIP (1.422) over 38.2 innings at AAA with 53 strikeouts and 16 saves. Cincinnati called him up in mid-July, and his command (2.7 walks per nine) was much better than expected. Batters hit .186 against him with a stellar strikeout rate (13.8). Santillan finished with strength in his ERA (3.00) and WHIP (1.000).
His average fastball (97.3) was the best of his career. He threw his four-seamer (.203 BAA) 60.3% of the time while featuring a slider (.163 BAA) as his only other pitch.
Fantasy Outlook: Santillan has a short sample size of success, with a minor league resume showcasing command issues. His fastball is an edge in velocity, but he must pitch ahead in the count for his slider to be a more valuable pitch. Santillan is only a player to follow until he proves last year wasn’t an outlier season in the majors.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.