2025 Fantasy Baseball: Houston Astros Closer Depth Chart
Josh Hader struggled in three months last year due to home run issues. The Astros gave him plenty of work, creating an edge in wins and strikeouts, but fantasy owners want more saves from his arm.
Josh Hader, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/8VjrTy2GlM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 27, 2024
CL – Josh Hader, HOU (ADP – 41.0)
In his first year with the Astros, Houston pitched Hader in many tie games, leading to a career-high in wins (8) and losses (8). Unfortunately, home runs (12 – 1.5 per nine) were his downfall in too many games. He threw more strikes while remaining challenging to hit (.171 BAA). All of his pitches leaving the yard were to right-handed batters.
Hader opened 2024 with poor stats in April (nine runs, 14 baserunners, and one home run over 12.2 innings), followed by disaster in July (six runs, 10 baserunners, and four home over 10.1 innings) and September (eight runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over 10.2 innings). Twenty-three of his 30 runs allowed came in games when he gave up a home run. Batters had their highest exit velocity (89.7 mph) and hard-hit rate (38.8) against him since 2019.
His average fastball (96.3) aligned with 2023. Hader threw his sinker (.199 BAA with eight home runs and 68 strikeouts over 181 at-bats) 71.8% of the time while relying heavily on his slider (.127 BAA – 27.2% usage as his second pitch.
Fantasy Outlook: The lack of depth in Hader’s arsenal is a problem when getting behind in the count, leading to righties sitting on his high fastball (52.4% fly-ball rate). Over the past six seasons, his stats have been much better in odd years. I like his increased workload, which creates more strikeouts and chances at wins and saves. Hader is no longer the best-looking closer on the block, but a drafter can expect him to deliver close to 35 saves with some vulture victories and an edge in whiffs.
Top Astros Handcuff – Bryan Abreu, HOU (ADP – 478.5)
Abreu started to throw more strikes with Houston in 2022 and 2023, moving his arm to elite status (7-2 with 1.84 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 188 strikeouts, and seven saves over 132.1 innings). After the All-Star break in 2023, he didn’t allow a run over 27.2 innings with 34 strikeouts, eight holds, and three saves.
Last season, Abreu struggled in four of his first 16 appearances (eight runs, 27 baserunners, and four home runs over 16.2 innings with 22 strikeouts). His arm responded with 21.2 excellent innings (1.25 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts), but he pitches poorly over his following eight games (five runs, 16 baserunners, and a home run over eight innings with 13 strikeouts). Batters banged Abreu a round again over the latter two-thirds of August (9.00 ERA, 1.444 WHIP, and .275 BAA over nine innings with 11 strikeouts). His season ended with an uptick in September (two runs, five hits, and a walk over 11.2 innings with 12 strikeouts).
His average fastball (96.9) was down slightly from his two previous seasons. Abreu has an electric slider (.163 BAA and 70 strikeouts over 166 at-bats), which he threw as his top pitch (53.0% usage). His four-seamer (.250) was a weaker pitch, especially to left-handed batters (.323 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: After showing growth in 2023, Abreu lost his way last year vs. left-handed batters while still getting behind early in the count based on his first-pitch strike rate (56). His one elite swing-and-miss pitch is his ticket to the ninth inning, but that role can’t happen until he improves his lefty splits. If I roster Josh Hader in 15-team formats, I will buy and hold Abreu for insurance.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.