2025 Fantasy Baseball: Jackson Merrill Profile, Preview, Predictions
Jackson Merrill was a top-25 hitter in his rookie while almost being free in fantasy leagues. Is he worthy of a late first-round pick in 15-team formats in 2025?
FIRST CAREER #POSTSEASON HOME RUN FOR JACKSON MERRILL! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/8GJvefuScY
— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2024
OF – Jackson Merrill, SD (ADP – 26.0)
Merrill came to San Diego via the 27th selection in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three short seasons in the minors, he hit .295 with 133 runs, 21 home runs, 114 RBIs, and 31 stolen bases over 800 at-bats. His highest experience level was AA (.273/26/5/31/5 over 187 at-bats). Merrill has a below-par walk rate (7.4) while being challenging to strikeouts (15.1).
Despite only about a third of a year of experience at AAA, Merrill made the Padres starting lineup in 2024. He hit .280 over his first 186 at-bats in San Diego with 22 runs, three home runs, 22 RBIs, and seven stolen bases. His power emerged in June (.320/17/9/20/2 over 103 at-bats) and August (.303/18/7/23/5 over 99 at-bats). Merrill had less success against left-handed pitching (.240/13/5/17/4 over 146 at-bats). He hit an impressive .326 on the road with 40 runs, 12 home runs, 51 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 288 at-bats.
His strikeout rate (17.0) was in a favorable area, but he had a free-swinging approach (4.9% walk rate). Merrill finished with a line drive swing path (23.9%) with a slight increase in his HR/FB rate (13.0). He ranked 67th in exit velocity (90.4) and 75th in hard-hit rate (43.9).
Fantasy Outlook: Merrill surprised in home runs last year based on his incoming average hit rate (1.605). He upped that number (1.710) in 2024, painting a new floor of 25 home runs if repeated with 550 at-bats. He performed well with runners on base (RBI rate – 18). His minor league resume supports more stolen bases (he ranked 43rd in sprint speed last season). For now, I’ll view Merrill as a 25/20 player with help in runs, RBIs, and stolen bases. He finished last season ranked 22nd in FPGscore (3.95) for hitters.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.