2025 Fantasy Baseball: Jarren Duran Profile, Preview, Predictions
The Duran's bat last season was a big win for Red Sox fans and his fantasy supporters. The leadoff job for Boston is his to lose in 2025. His strides at the plate point to another productive year, but matching his overall fantasy value may be a lot to ask.
Jarren Duran leads off the game for the @RedSox with home run No. 20. pic.twitter.com/KSxnmc4CDQ
— MLB (@MLB) August 27, 2024
OF – Jarren Duran, BOS (ADP – 22.7)
The debate when looking at baseball players each season is between progression and regression. The direction a player is moving is critical to having success in the fantasy market. Durran came into 2024 with 643 at-bats in the majors over three seasons. He hit .258 with 86 runs, 13 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 33 stolen bases while striking out 27.7% of the time. He lowered his strikeout rate (24.9) in 2023, a sign of gaining more confidence at the major league level at the plate.
Boston handed him their leadoff job in 2024, and Durran responded with a top-10 fantasy season by FPGscore (6.78). He led the American League in plate appearances (735), at-bats (671), doubles (48), and triples (14) while setting career highs in all other categories. He lowered his strikeout rate to 21.8%, with some improvement in his walk rate (7.4).
Over the first two months of 2024, Duran still had job loss risk (.253/32/3/23/11 over 237 at-bats). His bat caught fire in June (.360 with 26 runs, seven home runs, 17 RBIs, and nine steals over 111 at-bats), with follow-through over the next two months (.302/38/11/29/12 over 215 at-bats). In September, he only hit .241 with 15 runs, no home runs, six RBIs, and two steals. Duran held his own against lefties (.255/25/4/18/8 over 208 at-bats). He hit 14 of his 21 home runs on the road.
His exit velocity (90.8) was higher than in 2023 (89.9). He ranked 75th in hard-hit rate (43.9). Duran finished with small increases in his HR/FB rate (11.7) and fly-ball rate (35.2) while still having a groundball swing path (46.6%). His strength in contact batting average (.374) was supported by his minor league career (.392).
Fantasy Outlook: I’m never a fan of a player having a career season, especially well above their previous resume. On the positive side, Duran did have success at AAA (.266/103/28/80/36 over 564 at-bats), which maybe should have foreshadowed his potential coming into last season. At age 28, his window to get paid in the majors is relatively short. Did he ENHANCE his chances in 2024? By his stats, yes, but Duran won’t be a free agent until 2029. I’m fading him as I can’t see him repeating his high total of at-bats, and I’m not paying for last year’s stats on draft day. If he slumps, will Boston ride him out in 2025? I expect a 15% to 20% regression in his stats this year.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.