2025 Fantasy Baseball: Jeremy Pena Profile, Preview, Predictions
Heading into his fourth season with the Houston Astros, Jeremy Pena falls into the steady category in the fantasy market. He showed growth in steals in 2024, but home runs have fallen short of expectations in back-to-back years.
Jeremy Peña might’ve found his home run swing again pic.twitter.com/4HfQYSbRO1
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 4, 2024
SS – Jeremy Pena, HOU (ADP – 162.7)
Pena showed growth in stolen bases (20) in his time with the Astros, but home runs didn’t come along for the ride. He put 20 balls over the fence in his rookie campaign over 521 at-bats, but his power output has underperformed expectations over the past two seasons (10 and 15 over 1,179 combined at-bats). Pena came to the plate last season with 444 runs on base. Unfortunately, his RBI rate (12) was well below a middle-of-the-order bat.
His contact batting average (.326) is trending lower as his strikeout rate (17.1 – career-low) improves. He only took 25 walks (3.9%) last season. Pena still hits too many groundballs (49.4%) with a minimal change in his exit velocity (88.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (38.8). His average hit rate (1.481) has been in a light-hitting power area in back-to-back seasons.
He played well last April (.327/16/3/11/4 over 113 at-bats), followed by two quiet months (.248 over 198 at-bats with 23 runs, two home runs, 23 RBIs, and six stolen bases). Pena picked up the power pace in July and August (.265/31/9/29/5 over 200 at-bats) but drove the bus home with a downtick over his final 91 at-bats (.231/8/1/7/5). His bat offered a higher average against left-handed pitching (.306 over 157 at-bats with 17 runs, four home runs, 14 RBIs, and five steals).
Fantasy Outlook: Pena performed better in fantasy stats based on his FPGscore (1.08 – 52nd) for hitters than his underlying metrics. In the early draft season, he is the 95th batter selected based on his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, making him a value if Pena repeated his 2024 season.
He must improve with runners on base and add more loft to his swing path to reach a higher ceiling in home runs and RBIs. Houston gave him most of his at-bats between fourth and sixth in the batting order. Pena isn’t far off from being a 20/20 player in perception (surface stats), and his counting stats are helped by being in the lineup on most nights. He also has room for improvement in batting average.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.