2025 Fantasy Baseball: Nick Lodolo Profile, Preview, Predictions
Nick Lodolo has a difference-maker arm once he puts his whole package together. Injuries have been a problem in his career, leading to some head scratching moments on the mound.
Nick Lodolo's Ridiculous Breaking Balls. 😯
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 7, 2024
3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/ImAvFU7jME
SP - Nick Lodolo, CIN (ADP – 250.9)
In 2023, Lodolo looked sharp over his first three starts (four runs, 24 baserunners, and 27 strikeouts over 17.0 innings). He lost his way over his following four starts (20 runs, 36 baserunners, nine home runs, and seven hit batters over 17.1 innings). His failure was due to a stress reaction in his left tibia, costing him the final four months of the season.
A groin issue last year led to Lodolo missing two weeks in May. He went 8-2 over his first 11 starts with a 2.76 ERA, 1.010 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts over 65.1 innings. Unfortunately, his season ended with poor stats in seven of his final 10 matchups (41 runs, 72 baserunners, and seven home runs over 50.0 innings with 52 strikeouts). Lodolo picked up a blister issue in late June (IL stint), followed by a season-ending finger injury in late August.
His average fastball (94.2) gained some velocity. Lodolo continues to have a plus slider (.215 BAA and 65 strikeouts). His four-seamer (.182 BAA) and changeup (.235 BAA) were much better in 2024. Lodolo had a below-par sinker (.273 BAA) that he rarely used against lefties.
Fantasy Outlook: Injuries have gotten the best of Lodolo over three seasons with the Reds. He had a sharp decline in his strikeout rate (9.5 – 11.6 over his first two years in Cincinnati), but his pitch per plate appearance (3.8) was career-low while also improving his first pitch strike rate (66.3). Of all the pitchers in my SP5 grouping by ADP, Lodolo has the highest ceiling.
He’s crushed some of my fantasy teams over the past two seasons, but I know a special season is coming if the Reds can keep him on the field for 32 games. Lodolo’s within range of a sub-3.00 ERA with 200+ strikeouts. On the downside, batters have been hit by him 44 times in his 47 career starts.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.