2025 Fantasy Baseball: Paul Skenes Profile, Preview, Predictions
Pittsburgh Pirates ace pitcher Paul Skenes is currently the consensus top pitcher being selected in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. After winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award and starting the 2024 All-Star Game, Skenes is poised for a monster 2025 campaign.
Paul Skenes, PIT (ADP – 10.4)
In his first year pitching for the Air Force, Skenes pitched out of the bullpen, leading to a 2.70 ERA, 30 strikeouts, and 11 saves over 26.2 innings. A switch to the starting rotation treated him well in 2022 (10-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 96 strikeouts over 85.2 innings). He also succeeded with his bat (.367/88/24/81 over 341 at-bats).
Transferring to LSU in 2023 led to an elite arm with workhorse status. He won 13 of his 19 starts with a 2.05 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts over 122.2 innings. His walk rate (1.5) reached electric status, making his pitches more challenging to hit and increasing his strikeout rate (15.3). Pittsburgh gave him five short-inning appearances at three levels in the minors after selecting Skenes with the first overall selection in the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Skenes made 30 starts last season, with the first seven coming in short-inning stints at AAA (0.99 ERA, 0.915 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts over 27.1 innings). His major league debut came on May 11th (three runs, nine baserunners, and a home run over four innings with seven strikeouts). He went 6-1 over his next 13 starts with a 1.76 ERA, 0.890 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts over 82.0 innings. Skenes' worst outing (four runs over six innings with eight strikeouts) came against the Dodgers on the road on August 10th. His greatness continued over his final eight appearances (5-1 with a 1.32 ERA, 0.927 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts over 41.0 innings).
The movement on Paul Skenes’ pitches is mind-blowing ... and it's only January 😳 pic.twitter.com/uuJyHtUj4j
— MLB (@MLB) January 27, 2025
His average fastball clocked in at 99.1 mph. Batters struggled to hit all five of his pitches (four-seamer – .228, sinker – .182, slider – .171, curveball – .214, and changeup – 0.086). Right-handed hitters did have the most success vs. his four-seam fastball (.281 BAA). Skenes controlled the damage with walks (2.2 per nine), with strength in his strikeout rate (11.5 per nine or 33.1%).
Fantasy Outlook: Skenes is the next big thing in fantasy baseball and a player worth fighting for in drafts. He is the first pitcher drafted in 2025, with a first-round ADP in the high-stakes market. The Pirates allowed him to throw 90+ pitches in 18 of his 23 starts in his rookie season, including 15 consecutive games. Skenes has a workhorse profile, with his natural progression pushing him over 190.0 innings this year. I expect 15 wins and 240+ strikeouts with a massive edge in ERA and WHIP. If Pittsburgh can’t sign him to a long-term deal, they should push him hard early in his career. If his changeup improves, his ceiling in strikeouts will be much higher.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.