2025 Fantasy Baseball: Pittsburgh Pirates Closer Depth Chart
If David Bednar can't resurrect his arm in 2025, the Pirates won't improve on their 27th bullpen ERA (4.49) for last season. The fantasy markets have been looking behind every pitching door for his top handcuff over the winter, but we have found his insurance policy.
USA Renegade 🇺🇸
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) March 12, 2023
David Bednar struck out the side on 18 pitches in a big win for the USA.#WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/cyPtqPcfQu
CL – David Bednar, PIT (ADP – 136.2)
After success closing games in 2022 and 2023 (58-for-65), the magic left Bednar’s arm last season. He allowed a run or more in eight of his first 20 games, leading to an 8.31 ERA, 1.415 WHIP, and three home runs over 17.1 innings) while blowing three of his 12 save opportunities. Bednar corrected some of his damage over his next 18 games (three runs, 13 baserunners, three home runs, and 15 strikeouts over 18.0 innings). He had a win and nine saves over this span.
An oblique injury pushed him on the injured list for about three weeks in late June. Bednar allowed a run or more in six consecutive games from July 29th to August 16th (eight runs, 19 baserunners, and two home runs over 6.1 innings). If that wasn’t bad enough, he dropped a five spot in runs on August 28th over two-thirds of an inning. The final damage over his final 24 games came to 18 runs, 24 hits, 20 walks, and three home runs over 22.1 innings with 22 strikeouts, suggesting an underlying injury.
Home runs (seven over 103 at-bats) were a problem to left-handed batters, and righties hit .258 against him. Surprisingly, Bednar set a career in velocity on his four-seamer (97.3) and split-finger fastball (92.1). From July 28th to the end of the year, his split-finger pitch (.188 BAA) held value, but he issued 15 walks with eight strikeouts via his fastball over 47 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on the speed of his pitches, Bednar may have been overthrowing over the final two months, stalling the movement of the baseball in the strike zone. At the same time, failure forced him to press and lose confidence in his arsenal. His hard-hit rate (39.3) was below 2023 (39.9%), but Bednar gave up 16 barrels last year compared to nine the previous season. His issue with home runs (nine over 57.2 innings) was tied to a career-high fly-ball rate (47.1). He must regain his lost command (4.4 walks per nine) to keep the closing job for the Pirates. Bednar is worth a dart, but I can’t guarantee his pitches will land in a winning area.
RP – Braxton Ashcraft, PIT
The Pirates bullpen looks messy in all areas, which suggests David Bednar gets a look leash again in 2025. Based on this, I went minor-league surfing to find a possible arm to help fantasy teams this season. My journey landed on Ashcraft, who missed some development time earlier in his career due to TJ surgery.
Over the past two seasons, he pitched 126.2 innings over 34 starts (36 games), leading to only 3.5 innings per appearance. Ashcraft pitched well over this span (2.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 141 strikeouts over 126.2 innings). In 2024, a forearm issue led to three midsummer stints on the injured list.
His fastball sits in the mid-90s while featuring a slider as his second-best pitch, behind his four-seamer. Ashcraft also mixed on a curveball and low-volume changeup. He walked only 1.6 batters per nine over the past two seasons, an excellent sign if moved to the bullpen.
Fantasy Outlook: Hopefully, Ashcraft doesn’t need a second TJ surgery due to the after efforts of his forearm issue in 2024. A move to the bullpen seems like a must, and it may bring life to his value to Pittsburgh. Based on his command and two top pitches, his arm has a chance to surprise this season in the majors.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.