2025 Fantasy Baseball: Ronald Acuna Profile, Preview, Predictions
The greatness of Ronald Acuna was on full display in 2023 after posting a historic season. After another lost season to an injury, what can the fantasy market expect from him this year?
Ronald Acuña Jr.'s first home run of the year gives the @Braves the lead! pic.twitter.com/yTb6gMOsmX
— MLB (@MLB) April 17, 2024
OF – Ronald Acuna, ATL (ADP – 31.7)
As the calendar flipped to March last year, Acuna was a late scratch from the Braves lineup in spring training. The high-stakes market had him pinned as the first overall pick for six months after his historic 2023 season. After some testing on his right knee (meniscus issue), he was back taking batting practice a week later and playing the outfielder in games by the middle of the month.
There was something clearly wrong with his knee or knees based on his lost power (four home runs and 15 RBIs) over his first 192 at-bats. Acuna had a dismal RBI rate (10) and a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.458). His left knee (torn ACL) gave away on May 26th, followed by his surgery on June 7th. The recovery time for this type of injury typically takes nine months, putting Acuna on track to return in April. Atlanta has already floated out there that he won’t be ready for opening day.
In 2021, Acuna had surgery to repair his right ACL on July 22nd. He returned to game action on April 28th the following season (just over nine months), leading to him missing the first 19 games. Acuna ran over his 22 starts (.284/13/2/10/9 over 81 at-bats), but he struck out 32.3% of the time. Groin, quad, and foot injuries led to 12 missed games in May and June. His best production came over the final two months (.275/31/7/27/7 over 204 at-bats). Acuna stole 20 of his 29 bases before the All-Star break.
With this in mind, the fantasy market can’t expect Acuna to produce anywhere close to his stats in 2023 this season.
Last year, he had a career-high groundball rate (51.1), with a further decline in his fly-ball rate (27.3) and weakness in his HR/FB rate (10.5 – 24.0 in 2023 and 12.8 in 2022). His exit velocity (92.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.6) weren’t that far off his career averages (92.3/50.8).
Fantasy Outlook: I expect Acuna back by mid-April if he doesn’t have a setback. His ADP will fluctuate in March based on his news and ability to get on the field. When in the starting lineup, the Braves will bat him leadoff, and he wants to run. As the 25th batter drafted in mid-January, Acuna would need to produce a season in the range of stats with Jackson Merrill, Bryce Harper, Jackson Chourio, or Trea Turner in 2024.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.