2025 Fantasy Baseball: Spencer Steer Profile, Preview, Predictions
Spencer Steer may open 2025 on the injured list due to a lingering right shoulder injury. It is just enough of a red flag to avoid him this fantasy draft season unless he is severely discounted.
Spencer Steer's first career multi-HR game. pic.twitter.com/swA5FwM8UK
— MLB (@MLB) August 13, 2024
1B – Spencer Steer, CIN (ADP – 112.8)
Coming into 2024, the Reds were loaded with upside offensive talent, leaving a quandary of where Steer would earn at-bats. A couple of injuries later led to him playing in 158 games at 1B (63), 2B (7), SS (1), and OF (102). Despite his regression in contact batting average (.295) from 2023 (.357), he finished the year ranked 46th in FPGscore (1.34) for hitters, outperforming his 2023 price point (64th batter drafted) by 18 places.
Before 2023, Steer only had 17 career steals in the minors over 1,094 at-bats. His jump to 15 steals was a surprise in 2023, even with MLB changing the rules to increase stolen bases. He upped that outcome to 25 bags last year, giving him success in 40 of his 46 tries with the Reds. Steer’s success in this area almost highlights the 2025 question about Jackson Merrill's running potential in his sophomore campaign with the Padres (16-for-19 last season with 31 stolen bases over 800 at-bats in the minors).
His approach (strikeout rate – 20.9 and walk rate – 11.0) graded well in back-to-back seasons. Steer saw growth in his average hit rate (1.791) again last season, while his minor league resume showed more upside in this area in 2021 (1.906) and 2022 (1.880). He improved his hard-hit rate (39.9) but ranked poorly (157th out of 207 batters with at least 400 at-bats) in exit velocity (88.0 mph). His output in power is helped by an improving fly-ball swing path (44.3) and launch angle (17.4). Unfortunately, Steer continued to have weakness in his HR/FB rate (10.3 – 12.0% in 2023).
He closed out last season with only five home runs over his final 227 at-bats, with 24 runs, 32 RBIs, and 11 steals. Most of those RBIs (20) came in August. Steer struggled vs. lefties (.212/21/3/23/8 over 146 at-bats) after dominating against them in 2023 (.313 with 25 runs, nine home runs, 33 RBIs, and three steals over 160 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: Steer doesn’t have the tools to be a stud bat based on his career path and foundation skill set. He puts the ball in the air, minimizes the damage in strikeouts, and takes advantage of his base-stealing opportunities. If he doesn’t rebound vs. left-handed pitching, a platoon role could enter the equation at some part of 2025.
I respect his floor of 20 home runs, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him bash over 30 long balls at some point in his career. With 15 steals and a full-time job, Steer’s ADP has value already priced (112.8). His batting average should rebound some this season.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.