2025 Fantasy Baseball: St. Louis Cardinals Closer Depth Chart
Ryan Helsley wins with his electric breaking pitches, but why was there a lost edge in whiffs with his fastball in 2024?
Ryan Helsley's 3Ks in the 9th. pic.twitter.com/gEcSz3Qu6G
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 8, 2024
CL – Ryan Helsley, STL (ADP – 50.3)
A forearm injury cost Helsley about three months from June through September in 2023. Over his first 22 games, he converted seven of his 11 save chances with a 3.24 ERA, .205 BAA, and 33 strikeouts over 25.0 innings. Helsley finished the season with one run allowed over 11.2 innings with 19 strikeouts and seven saves. His walk rate (4.2) was below his growth in 2022 (2.8).
Last season, he set career highs in appearances (65) and innings pitched (66.1) while leading the National League in saves (49) and games finished (62). Helsley allowed only four home runs over his previous 103.0 innings. His 2024 season ended with 17.2 shutout innings with 13 baserunners and 24 strikeouts while converting 14 of his 15 closing opportunities.
His average fastball (99.8) is one of the best in the game. Hesley threw his slider (.169 BAA – only three extra hits allowed) as his top usage pitch (48.2%) at the expense of his four-seamer (45.4%). He changed his approach due to left-handed batters having more success against his fastball (.294 BAA). Helsley only recorded 12 strikeouts (14 walks) with his heater over 102 at-bats, compared to 49 in 2022 (135 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: Despite his success, his profile has some red flags – a drop of 2.1 strikeouts per nine innings, even with improved command (3.1 walks per nine) from 2023 (4.2) and his previous forearm issue. Helsley wins with his electric breaking pitches, but why was there a lost edge in whiffs with his fastball? His increased workload, slider usage, and decline in strikeouts suggest a significant elbow injury is on the horizon.
I can’t predict when a player will get hurt, requiring a fantasy drafter to stay in tune with his handcuff. Helsley was a difference-maker in 2024 while falling in a sweet spot in drafts at the closer position. His range this year is between elite reliever and season-ending surgery. Keep two hands on the wheel, as perception rarely matches reality after a career season.
RP JoJo Romero, STL
Identifying the next player in line for saves in the Cardinals’ bullpen will be challenging heading into the regular season unless St. Louis signs an upgrade via free agency.
Romero started his minor league career as a starting pitcher (24-18 with a 3.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 320 strikeouts over 347.0 innings from 2017 to 2019). The Phillies and St. Louis used him out of the bullpen in 2022. Over 27 games in relief between AA and AAA, he posted a 2.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts over 31.0 innings while picking up four saves.
Over the past two seasons with St. Louis, Romero went 11-5 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.118 WHIP, four saves, and 93 strikeouts over 95.2 innings. He allowed eight home runs over 59.0 innings in 2024, with a regression in his strikeout rate (7.8). Right-handed batters hit .264 with seven long balls over 148 at-bats.
His average fastball (95.4) has been in a tight range in his time in the majors. Romero threw fewer four-seamer fastballs (9.8%) and changeups (17.1%) last year, increasing the usage of his sinker (39.1%) and slider (34.0%). His only asset was his slider (.099 BAA with 40 strikeouts), highlighting a further weakness if asked to finish games.
Fantasy Outlook: Romero is only a placeholder in my research of the Cardinals’ bullpen. His arm showed growth last year, but one edge pitch and weakness vs. righties erase any thoughts of him securing saves for any length of time.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.